(12/17 @ 1:27pm Update): Friday estimates are out, and the Great Box Office Recession (copyright pending…) continues.
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows opened to a surprisingly soft $14.7 million on Friday and is now on track to gross less than $40 million this weekend. While a respectable total for most films, this can’t be seen as an encouraging sign for a sequel to a well-received franchise flick during the holiday season. The Friday figure represents an estimated (-40%) drop from the first film’s opening day of $24.6 million on Christmas Day in 2009.
Additionally, Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked opened to $6.8 million on Friday, or a (-63%) drop from the second film’s $18.8 million opening on Wednesday, December 23, 2009.
The only bright spot of the weekend? Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol pulled $4.1 million from its 427 IMAX and large screen format theaters on Friday. Helped by larger ticket prices, this at least bodes well for the film’s expansion into conventional theaters next Wednesday. In fact, its now a strong contender to upset Holmes 2 for the holiday box office crown if it can maintain its positive word of mouth throughout the remainder of the holiday season.
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Leading the pack this weekend is the much anticipated Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, re-teaming Robert Downey, Jr. and Jude Law with director Guy Ritchie — the team that sent the first film to huge success this time two years ago. While the recent box office downturn has muted my somewhat optimistic expectations, I still think Holmes 2 is being slightly undersold.
A major reason that the box office has been in such a decline is because of the shrinking teenage and young adult audience. As we saw during the holidays last year, it was adults and families that really drove the marketplace (my theory here is that, in this economy, those are two of the few demographics with enough expendable income to afford a movie ticket on a regular basis anymore).
Having said that, there seems to be substantial interest from the younger crowds for Holmes 2. Perhaps not as strong as that of Iron Man 2, Downey’s most recent franchise sequel, but nevertheless the first film received strong word of mouth back in 2009 and Downey’s star has risen in similar-if-not-literal way that Johnny Depp’s did back in 2003 after Pirates of the Caribbean and his Jack Sparrow character brought him to the forefront of popular movie culture.
With Christmas just over one week away, there’s a good chance that some crowds are waiting for the holidays to catch most movies but Holmes 2 has the larger advantage of any others thanks to its nature as a sequel to a well-received film. As noted in my December preview two weeks ago, a relevant comparison here could be the National Treasure series. Its first film was a word-of-mouth-driven hit much like the first Holmes. The former pulled in $173 million off of a $35 million opening during the holiday/winter season of 2004-2005. Three years later, the sequel Book of Secrets opened to $44.8 million and grossed $220 million by the end of its run. In terms of ticket sales, that was approximately a 12.7% increase in lifetime ticket sales and a 15% increase in opening weekend admissions.
At the time, I had speculated that a $70m+ opening might be in store (ala Return of the King in 2003, I Am Legend in 2007, and Avatar in 2009 — each on this same weekend). Perhaps against my better judgment in this depressed market, I still think that figure is on the table but I’m going to lower my expectations to a more conservative $64 million for the weekend. Long term, with positive word of mouth (and judging by the screening I attended with a very youth-driven audience last night, it just may be), crossing the $200 million threshold again should be achievable.
Additionally, the second sequel in the Alvin and the Chipmunks franchise also debuts this weekend. Chipwrecked, interestingly enough, reverts back to the same weekend that the first film opened on back in 2007. I say that’s interesting because on that same weekend, Warner Bros. debuted Will Smith’s I Am Legend to a then-December record $77.2 million (while Alvin surprised with a $44.3 million). 2011 is a mirror of that release pattern with Alvin 3 again counter-programming a major Warner Bros. tentpole.
As I’ve noted before, you would think that I learned my lesson after betting against the first two films from becoming such big hits. I have, partially, as I feel this film will still find most of its audience considering the extreme lack of appealing films to young kids and families right now. However, even though Alvin 2 pulled $220 million two years ago — $3 million more than its predecessor — demand for the genre has waned considerably thanks to increasing ticket price burdens on families.
As a result, 2010 has yet to produce a $200 million grossing film in the family animation genre (live-action hybrid or otherwise) and I don’t think Alvin 3 will be the one to change that. In fact, six of the seven films in the animation genre this year have fallen in the $165 million or less bracket — including Kung Fu Panda 2, The Smurfs, and Puss in Boots.
With openings of $44.3 million and $48.9 million for the two films, respectively, I expect we’ll start to see those signs of franchise fatigue with this new entry that many of us expected two years ago. Additionally, while families can certainly be the driving force of the holiday season, they’re also the ones that spend the most money on such an event — meaning its all or nothing when it comes to sequels like Alvin, as other disappointing family films have proven this year (Kung Fu Panda 2, Cars 2, and Happy Feet Two all disappointed during their runs despite their popular predecessors).
Similar to The Smurfs‘ $35.6 million opening last summer, and conservatively, I’m predicting a more subdued $27.5 million opening this weekend — or about a 45% drop in revenue from Alvin 2‘s unadjusted opening weekend.
Lastly, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol opens in IMAX and other large format screens this weekend. There isn’t really a solid precedent to go by here as the film won’t open in conventional theaters until next Wednesday. Having said that, reviews are strong and the buzz around Tom Cruise’s Burj Khalifa stunt has been prevalent in recent months — moreso than any buzz Mission: Impossible 3 ever received back in 2006 before its underwhelming summer kick-off.
Opening in 425 theaters and benefiting from entirely from large screen format price inflation, I’ll throw a dart at the board for this one and “predict” (using that term loosely) Ghost Protocol can achieve a $11.5 million opening weekend with the advance sneaks. Having strong appeal toward the adult audience will certainly help its case, however, directly competing against Holmes 2‘s opening weekend may not have been the best strategy (though the film is certainly strong enough to make up for it with long holiday legs). Having the prologue from The Dark Knight Rises attached certainly won’t hurt, though.
I agree with you on Sherlock Holmes 2. I really can’t see anything less then 60m ow. 200m+ total still happening.
I’m going soft of Sherlock and conservative on MI4 (which I now realize was silly).
I think SH2 will do under 60m, maybe even low 50s – we’ll see.
I don’t think any Chipmunk movie was in 3D..
Yep, my mistake. I wrote that part on the fly right after adding in the Smurfs comparison and got them mixed up.
is it possible to do a top 10 predictions here
Yep, I’m planning on getting back to top ten predictions pretty soon (or at least top five).
The signs were there for both SH2 and Alvin 3. One thing you didn’t mention is the difference between releasing on Christmas and releasing the week before. If it had opened to $60m, it would have blown past $200m with ease. Also the last one didn’t really have good legs given the release date.
As I mentioned, I was being stubborn on the signs for Holmes 2 (which, aside from MTC & RS, I still feel were more mixed rather than clear — the film had been tracking very well in previous weeks’ audience surveys).
I also have to respectfully disagree about the first film’s legs. It had less of a holiday benefit than most films do thanks to releasing on Christmas Day itself, meaning the window for the holiday leg boost was incredibly short-lived (essentially, about nine or ten days — most films would receive at least one or more extra weekends to pick up a lot more holiday steam).
That’s not even considering the disadvantage of having to compete with both Avatar and the Alvin sequel. I’d argue Holmes fared significantly better than most had predicted it would at the time, or have given it credit for since.
At the end of the day, holidays or not, I don’t think any film with big upfront demand and that sizable of competition can be said to have less than respectable legs when it achieves a 3.3x+ multiplier. Its in its own league when it comes to potential direct comparisons (not even National Treasure 2, which had an incredibly easier market to handle).
Only films from later weekend affect a film’s legs, not the films opened on or before the same weekend. Competing against Avatar and Alvin 2 would mostly affect its opening instead of its legs, and that’s why I’d maintain the opening is its most impressive feat by far. The legs are mediocre by objective measures, as it dropped 41.2% on its second weekend, when no other film in the top 15 dropped over 29%; then it dropped 54.7% on the third frame, again the worst in the top 10.
Basically I feel the supposed “positive“ WOM for SH1 was overstated. It had a CinemaScore of B, and little in its run suggested anything other than WOM being average. The upfront demand from the cast and the title character created a very impressive opening, and that’s really it. Not many were demanding or enamored with a sequel. Also the first one had the best release date possible, with Christmas Eve falling on Thursday to make all three days over the weekend great box office days.
I guess this is just one of those rare occasions when we’re at opposite ends of the spectrum.
CinemaScore is a fair point,even if it can be hit or miss sometimes
I certainly wouldn’t dispute that WOM was less-than-excellent (older fans of the novels weren’t exactly enamored with the modern vision of the character). Younger crowds gravitated toward it more thanks to Downey’s charismatic performance, I feel. (Come to think of it, this disparity between youth and older audiences is something I’ve realized I missed in my initial analysis of the sequel.)
I have to disagree in the case of Avatar. When a film posts record-breaking second, third, etc. weekends and holds flat from a a $77 million opening, I feel its more than reasonable to expect that may have had some bearing on competing films opening within those first few weeks.
(This also would partly explain Holmes’s drops in the second and third weekends, as nothing could keep up with Avatar’s growing audience.)
Holmes’s case is unique in my opinion, in large part because Avatar and its effects on the overall market itself were wholly unique.
If I may ask, what are you using for your baseline comparison when saying that the legs were mediocre? Am I looking over another film similar to Holmes that opened on Christmas Day in recent years and posted a significantly better multiplier (and under similar market circumstances)?
Like you mentioned, it had all three days turn out to be great days. From one point of view, this inflates the otherwise modest potential of an opening, which would in turn result in a lower overall multiplier. Without that strong Saturday and Sunday, who is to say it wouldn’t have gained back that ground in the days/weeks ahead?
My personal opinion is that each case has to be taken within the context of the conditions surrounding it. Had Avatar and Alvin not been a factor (mainly the former), I would wholeheartedly agree that a 3.3x multiplier would be pretty weak.
I think its also worth pointing out that I Am Legend had a near identical multiplier even with having an extra holiday-boosted weekend and less competition. That’s the closest comparison to Holmes I’ve seen, and I’d say Holmes had the more impressive run of the two considering its disadvantages.
Sherlock wasn’t aiming to appeal to all of the typical holiday family crowds (so expecting a Marley & Me-like 3.9x multiplier should automatically be off the table) and we have to go at least seven years back (from 2009) to find a film released on Christmas Day with similar adult-focused demographic appeal that had stronger legs…at which point, I think we’d have to consider the possibility that modern day front-loading negates a large portion of that difference in multiplier.
If we just look at from Christmas weekend on, I Am Legend actually had a 4.57 multiplier. Its frontloadedness mainly consisted of the first week due to its sci-fi nature, but after that it behaved fine. I guess it’s indeed one of those rare cases where we would have to agree to disagree.
My feeling was (and still is) for a $60m+ opener on Christmas weekend, $200m would be the minimum I expect regardless the circumstance, and SH1 simply achieved that but nothing more.
A fair point again regarding front-loaded nature. I still think the same argument can be made for Holmes, though. That’s also where I think its tough to make a one-to-one comparison since IAL had 11 more days of a pre-Christmas boost.
If we eliminate the Christmas and New Year’s holiday boosts from the equation entirely to level the playing field a bit more, the results are kind of interesting:
IAL Avg. January Drop: (-46.4% over 4 wknds)
SH Avg. January Drop: (-40% over 4 wknds)
Technically, shouldn’t IAL should have had a much lower average than Holmes considering it was deeper into its run during the comparable January time frame? I feel like this points toward an extreme reliance upon the holiday boost to inflate its legs (or the lack of one to deflate SH’s, depending on the point of view).
Eck, my apologies for the lack of line breaks. Not sure what’s going on there…