Brief thoughts for the weekend:
Rock of Ages and That’s My Boy both saw modest increases in Flixster activity throughout the week, although its a bit more impressive for Rock considering Sandler’s fan base is likely driving the latter. Poor reviews, poor marketing, and Sandler’s declining quality in recent years — particularly with Jack and Jill – are going to finally catch up with him this time, I feel. The R rating should seal the deal. Little Nicky opened to $16.1 million in November of 2000. Adjusted for inflation, that equals about $23.6 million with today’s prices. I expect TMB to land around that figure, if not a little lower.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned Rock of Ages could be a dark horse contender for #1 this weekend. Up until recently I would have definitely given the win, but Father’s Day will certainly boost Madagascar 3‘s internal weekend hold (and word of mouth appears to fairly solid for the only true family flick in the market).
That’s certainly not the end of the story for Rock, though: if Hairspray and Mamma Mia! are any indication, Rock should enjoy a long and healthy run at the box office this summer provided audiences buy into the 80s nostalgia (which can be hit and miss at the box office). Those films opened to $27.5 million and $27.8 million, respectively… a range that Rock of Ages is likely to hit. Marketing has been stellar and this could appeal to the average guy slightly more than most musicals would thanks to an all-star cast and the more gender-neutral musical line-up.
Fandango sales have also been impressive for the film as it leads all current releases outside of Madagascar 3 with 11% of sales (and That’s My Boy is nowhere to be found). I may still be more optimistic than I should be, but I’m betting Rock of Ages becomes a top choice for a date movie over the weekend and finds enough of an audience to reach or exceed $30 million.
Lastly, based on past performances by films like Star Trek and Iron Man, I’m expecting Marvel’s The Avengers to get a huge boost from Father’s Day. One may look at Iron Man or Thor as indications that this near-flat hold isn’t likely, but those films also faced direct competition from new releases The Incredible Hulk in 2008 and Green Lantern in 2011 on Father’s Day weekend. Avengers faces nothing like that and on the heels of its incredible word of mouth and staying power thus far, a drop in line with Star Trek (which actually increased by 1.0% on Father’s Day weekend on 2009) seems a bit more likely.
1. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted - $34.0 million (-43.6%)
2. Rock of Ages - $31.0 million (NEW)
3. That’s My Boy - $23.0 million (NEW)
4. Prometheus - $22.3 million (-56.3%)
5. Snow White and the Huntsman - $11.0 million (-52.3%)
6. Men In Black 3 - $10.9 million (-21.6%)
7. Marvel’s The Avengers - $10.4 million (-7.5%)
8. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - $2.7 million (-17.4%)
9. Moonrise Kingdom - $1.8 million (+15.4%)
10. What to Expect When You’re Expecting - $1.4 million (-49.8%)