This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Writer/director Bong Joon-ho’s anticipated follow-up to the Best Picture-winning Parasite is the highlighted new entry to this week’s public forecast alongside key updates for other Q1 marquee titles.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- With a strong fan following, Joon-ho’s Mickey 17 (adapted from Ashton Edward’s novel, “Mickey7”) has generated notable online traction across social media channels with trailer views and imprints ahead of similar films such as The Creator and Argylle. The film will be a challenge for Warner Bros.’ marketing strategy, and to some extent a test of Robert Pattinson’s drawing power post-The Batman, as science fiction stories (especially sci-fi comedies) are not easy to sell with general audiences. That said, the studio has shown confidence by giving it a prime spring release date.
- Furthermore on Mickey 17, a full premium screen spread, including IMAX, and minimal competition boost overall revenue potential, but this might be a volatile film to forecast in the weeks ahead depending on the evolution of buzz and audience growth.
- While there is likely to be some component of a fan rush for Mickey as a niche IP, its filmmaker, and star, most of the general audience will view this as an unknown property, so a possible box office run that reflects a leggy original film is on the table. International play could be notable stronger than domestically.
- Closer to home, Captain America: Brave New World continues to pace well ahead of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, The Marvels, and Eternals as the Marvel film’s anticipated debut stands two weeks away and fans await early screening word of mouth.
- Following our preliminary forecasts on The Monkey, Neon’s latest trailer for the dark comedy-horror pic from Osgood Perkins performed strong across all social channels when it released last week, reportedly drawing a record number of views for an independent horror film. Among the glut of genre releases in the current and foreseeable market, The Monkey is showing potential as a possible breakout if this momentum keeps up over the next three weeks.
5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 1/30/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Studio / Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
4-Day (FSSM) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast |
2/5/2025 |
Hellraiser (2025 Re-Issue) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
IU Concert: The Winning |
Trafalgar Releasing |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||||
2/7/2025 |
Armand |
IFC Films |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/7/2025 |
Becoming Led Zeppelin (Limited) |
Sony Pictures Classics |
$1,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$8,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
2.33 |
|
2/7/2025 |
Heart Eyes |
Sony / Spyglass |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
3.13 |
|
2/7/2025 |
Love Hurts |
Universal Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$23,500,000 |
3.36 |
|
2/7/2025 |
Parasite (2025 IMAX Re-Issue) |
NEON |
$500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$750,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
||
2/7/2025 |
Parthenope |
A24 |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/7/2025 |
When I’m Ready |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/13/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue) (2/13/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/14/2025 |
Armand (Expansion) |
IFC Films |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
||
2/14/2025 |
Becoming Led Zeppelin (Expansion) |
Sony Pictures Classics |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/14/2025 |
Captain America: Brave New World |
Disney / Marvel Studios |
$81,000,000 |
$98,000,000 |
$90,000,000 |
$102,000,000 |
$195,000,000 |
$266,000,000 |
$240,000,000 |
2.67 |
2/14/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue) (2/14/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/14/2025 |
Paddington in Peru |
Sony Pictures |
$16,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$25,400,000 |
$59,000,000 |
$88,000,000 |
$74,000,000 |
3.52 |
2/15/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue) (2/15/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/16/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue) (2/16/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/20/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue) (2/20/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/20/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue) (2/21/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/21/2025 |
The Monkey |
NEON |
$17,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$79,000,000 |
$58,000,000 |
2.90 |
|
2/21/2025 |
The Unbreakable Boy |
Lionsgate & Kingdom Story Company |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$37,500,000 |
3.75 |
|
2/22/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue) (2/22/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/23/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue) (2/23/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/27/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (2/27/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/27/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (2/27/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/28/2025 |
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie |
Ketchup Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$6,700,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$10,800,000 |
3.60 |
|
2/28/2025 |
Last Breath |
Focus Features |
$3,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$16,250,000 |
3.25 |
|
2/28/2025 |
Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX -Beginning- |
GKIDS |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/28/2025 |
My Dead Friend Zoe |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/28/2025 |
Riff Raff |
Roadside Attractions |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
3/1/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (3/1/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
3/2/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (3/2/25) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
3/7/2025 |
In the Lost Lands |
Vertical Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
3/7/2025 |
Night of the Zoopocalypse |
Viva Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
3/7/2025 |
Mickey 17 |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$18,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$21,500,000 |
$46,500,000 |
$88,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
3.02 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.