Tracking & Forecasts

5-Week Box Office Tracking: MICKEY 17 Eyes $18-20M+ Debut In Early Forecasts, THE MONKEY Trends Upward, CAPTAIN AMERICA Updates and More

Photo Credits: Darius Khondji & Warner Bros. ("Mickey 17")

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

Writer/director Bong Joon-ho’s anticipated follow-up to the Best Picture-winning Parasite is the highlighted new entry to this week’s public forecast alongside key updates for other Q1 marquee titles.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

  • With a strong fan following, Joon-ho’s Mickey 17 (adapted from Ashton Edward’s novel, “Mickey7”) has generated notable online traction across social media channels with trailer views and imprints ahead of similar films such as The Creator and Argylle. The film will be a challenge for Warner Bros.’ marketing strategy, and to some extent a test of Robert Pattinson’s drawing power post-The Batman, as science fiction stories (especially sci-fi comedies) are not easy to sell with general audiences. That said, the studio has shown confidence by giving it a prime spring release date.
  • Furthermore on Mickey 17, a full premium screen spread, including IMAX, and minimal competition boost overall revenue potential, but this might be a volatile film to forecast in the weeks ahead depending on the evolution of buzz and audience growth.
  • While there is likely to be some component of a fan rush for Mickey as a niche IP, its filmmaker, and star, most of the general audience will view this as an unknown property, so a possible box office run that reflects a leggy original film is on the table. International play could be notable stronger than domestically.
  • Closer to home, Captain America: Brave New World continues to pace well ahead of Indiana Jones and the Dial of DestinyThe Marvels, and Eternals as the Marvel film’s anticipated debut stands two weeks away and fans await early screening word of mouth.
  • Following our preliminary forecasts on The Monkey, Neon’s latest trailer for the dark comedy-horror pic from Osgood Perkins performed strong across all social channels when it released last week, reportedly drawing a record number of views for an independent horror film. Among the glut of genre releases in the current and foreseeable market, The Monkey is showing potential as a possible breakout if this momentum keeps up over the next three weeks.

 5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 1/30/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)

Release Date
Title
Studio / Distributor
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast
4-Day (FSSM) PINPOINT Opening Forecast
Domestic Total LOW-END
Domestic Total HIGH-END
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast
2/5/2025
Hellraiser (2025 Re-Issue)
Fathom Events
n/a
n/a
IU Concert: The Winning
Trafalgar Releasing
n/a
n/a
2/7/2025
Armand
IFC Films
n/a
n/a
2/7/2025
Becoming Led Zeppelin (Limited)
Sony Pictures Classics
$1,000,000
$2,500,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$8,500,000
$3,500,000
2.33
2/7/2025
Heart Eyes
Sony / Spyglass
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$8,000,000
$15,000,000
$30,000,000
$25,000,000
3.13
2/7/2025
Love Hurts
Universal Pictures
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$7,000,000
$15,000,000
$34,000,000
$23,500,000
3.36
2/7/2025
Parasite (2025 IMAX Re-Issue)
NEON
$500,000
$2,000,000
$1,000,000
$750,000
$3,000,000
$1,500,000
2/7/2025
Parthenope
A24
n/a
n/a
2/7/2025
When I’m Ready
Briarcliff Entertainment
n/a
n/a
2/13/2025
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue) (2/13/25)
Fathom Events
n/a
n/a
2/14/2025
Armand (Expansion)
IFC Films
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
2/14/2025
Becoming Led Zeppelin (Expansion)
Sony Pictures Classics
n/a
n/a
2/14/2025
Captain America: Brave New World
Disney / Marvel Studios
$81,000,000
$98,000,000
$90,000,000
$102,000,000
$195,000,000
$266,000,000
$240,000,000
2.67
2/14/2025
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue) (2/14/25)
Fathom Events
n/a
n/a
2/14/2025
Paddington in Peru
Sony Pictures
$16,000,000
$25,000,000
$21,000,000
$25,400,000
$59,000,000
$88,000,000
$74,000,000
3.52
2/15/2025
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue) (2/15/25)
Fathom Events
n/a
n/a
2/16/2025
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue) (2/16/25)
Fathom Events
n/a
n/a
2/20/2025
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue) (2/20/25)
Fathom Events
n/a
n/a
2/20/2025
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue) (2/21/25)
Fathom Events
n/a
n/a
2/21/2025
The Monkey
NEON
$17,000,000
$25,000,000
$20,000,000
$45,000,000
$79,000,000
$58,000,000
2.90
2/21/2025
The Unbreakable Boy
Lionsgate & Kingdom Story Company
$7,000,000
$12,000,000
$10,000,000
$21,000,000
$40,000,000
$37,500,000
3.75
2/22/2025
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue) (2/22/25)
Fathom Events
n/a
n/a
2/23/2025
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue) (2/23/25)
Fathom Events
n/a
n/a
2/27/2025
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (2/27/25)
Fathom Events
n/a
n/a
2/27/2025
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (2/27/25)
Fathom Events
n/a
n/a
2/28/2025
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie
Ketchup Entertainment
$2,000,000
$5,000,000
$3,000,000
$6,700,000
$18,000,000
$10,800,000
3.60
2/28/2025
Last Breath
Focus Features
$3,000,000
$7,000,000
$5,000,000
$9,000,000
$24,000,000
$16,250,000
3.25
2/28/2025
Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX -Beginning-
GKIDS
n/a
n/a
2/28/2025
My Dead Friend Zoe
Briarcliff Entertainment
n/a
n/a
2/28/2025
Riff Raff
Roadside Attractions
n/a
n/a
3/1/2025
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (3/1/25)
Fathom Events
n/a
n/a
3/2/2025
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (3/2/25)
Fathom Events
n/a
n/a
3/7/2025
In the Lost Lands
Vertical Entertainment
n/a
n/a
3/7/2025
Night of the Zoopocalypse
Viva Entertainment
n/a
n/a
3/7/2025
Mickey 17
Warner Bros. Pictures
$18,000,000
$25,000,000
$21,500,000
$46,500,000
$88,000,000
$65,000,000
3.02

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.