5-Week Tracking: ALIEN: ROMULUS ($30M+ Debut) Healthy in Early Pre-Sales, TWISTERS and DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE Still Shining in Late-Stage Models

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20th Century Studios and director Fede Álvarez’s anticipated addition to the Alien franchise is the focus of this week’s extended box office outlook, while several upcoming summer tentpoles also receive brief updates below.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Alien: Romulus is positioned as August’s marquee R-rated horror film, although it will have to contend with the PG-13-rated Trap in terms of appealing to the under-30 audience that’s showing healthy interest in the latter M. Night Shayamalan pic. Romulus itself began pre-sales on July 11 with the first 24 hours pacing 34 percent ahead of The Exorcist: Believer‘s first day and 34 percent behind Scream VI at the same point. Early social buzz for the Alien prequel-sequel is strong with anticipation among fans for the film’s practical effects and return to horror elements that turned the original films into classics. Still, after mixed reception toward Prometheus and Alien: Covenant, the casual audience will be a tough sell upfront.
• Closer to the frontlines, next week’s release of Twisters continues to impress in pre-release tracking across the board. Our models are positioning the film’s Thursday previews at approximately one-third the sample market volume of Jurassic World Dominion, a very strong trendline for Twisters in the regard that it’s expected to be less front-loaded with strong lesg into late summer and does not have the advantage of recent franchise sequels to drive upfront buzz.
• Disney and Marvel Studios’ key 2024 release is just two weeks away. Deadpool & Wolverine remains mostly on track with previous low-to-middle end expectations, although we’re adjusting projections down slightly until or unless it begins to showcase some pre-sale trends that deviate from Thor: Love and Thunder‘s last final weeks. This remains a strong possibility as D&W is expected to cater slightly more among the casual Marvel fan base thanks to Reynolds, Jackman, and the comedic nature of the MCU release. Time will tell, though, and the R rating remains a challenging variable in comparison to past Marvel films.
• The aforementioned Trap has received a PG-13 rating, further bolstering its prospects among some of the target audience as Shyamalan’s latest hopes to reach both his older fans and some younger ones as well.

This report is also published in our newsletter where short-term, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available for as little as $6.25 per month. Your paid subscription greatly supports Box Office Theory’s research and includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.