Note: The Legend of Ochi, previously featured in this report with forecasts for its planned February 28 release, has been removed. After publication, it was announced that the film has been delayed to April 25 out of respect to the loss of writer/director Isaiah Saxon’s home in the Los Angeles wildfires. Our thoughts go out to Isaiah and all those impacted.
This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s update takes a brief look at where things stand on the short-range box office spectrum as January winds down and our look at February comes into fuller view.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Since going on sale last Friday, Captain America: Brave New World has generally hit our modeling targets from previous weeks. With a marketing ramp-up expected during NFL playoffs and the Super Bowl in the weekends ahead, plus a more adult-oriented Marvel story and general audience caution toward comic book films of late, this could be a slow-burn performer relative to bigger Marvel films for late-stage tracking and pre-sales watchers.
- It goes without saying that eventual reviews and reception will be critical to determining the floor and ceiling of the MCU’s first non-Deadpool & Wolverine installment since the severe underperformance of The Marvels in late 2023. By that metric, Brave New World is well ahead of where Marvels and Eternals stood in pre-sales across the same sample exhibitor markets.
- Closer to the home front, next week’s Dog Man continues to look strong among families as the first fully animated release since Moana 2 in late November.
- Joining our public forecast this week are three counter-programmers slated to open on February 28:
- The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie is likely to have limited distribution and marketing reach, while largely catering to an older audience who grew up on the brand and their kids, but the franchise is far less familiar to today’s younger generations.
- Last Breath will court Woody Harrelson and survival-thriller-drama fans in a planned wide play from Focus.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 1/23/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Studio / Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
4-Day (FSSM) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast |
1/29/2025 |
(G)I-dle World Tour [iDol] in Cinemas |
Trafalgar Releasing |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
1/31/2025 |
Companion |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$31,000,000 |
2.58 |
|
1/31/2025 |
Dog Man |
Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation |
$21,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$67,000,000 |
$111,000,000 |
$79,000,000 |
3.16 |
|
1/31/2025 |
Green and Gold (One Week Event) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
1/31/2025 |
Love Me |
Bleecker Street |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
1/31/2025 |
Valiant One |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
2.00 |
|
2/5/2025 |
Hellraiser (2025 Re-Issue) |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
IU Concert: The Winning |
Trafalgar Releasing |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||||
2/7/2025 |
Armand |
IFC Films |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/7/2025 |
Becoming Led Zeppelin (Limited) |
Sony Pictures Classics |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/7/2025 |
Heart Eyes |
Sony / Spyglass |
$8,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$39,400,000 |
$28,000,000 |
2.55 |
|
2/7/2025 |
Love Hurts |
Universal Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$9,500,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
3.37 |
|
2/7/2025 |
Parthenope |
A24 |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/7/2025 |
When I’m Ready |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/13/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue) (2/13/25) |
Fathom Events |
$1,300,000 |
$3,400,000 |
||||||
2/14/2025 |
Armand (Expansion) |
IFC Films |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/14/2025 |
Becoming Led Zeppelin (Expansion) |
Sony Pictures Classics |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/14/2025 |
Captain America: Brave New World |
Disney / Marvel Studios |
$81,000,000 |
$98,000,000 |
$90,000,000 |
$102,000,000 |
$195,000,000 |
$266,000,000 |
$240,000,000 |
2.67 |
2/14/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue) (2/14/25) |
Fathom Events |
$1,300,000 |
$3,000,000 |
||||||
2/14/2025 |
Paddington in Peru |
Sony Pictures |
$16,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$25,400,000 |
$59,000,000 |
$88,000,000 |
$74,000,000 |
3.52 |
2/15/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue) (2/15/25) |
Fathom Events |
$1,400,000 |
$3,400,000 |
||||||
2/16/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue) (2/16/25) |
Fathom Events |
$1,200,000 |
$2,700,000 |
||||||
2/20/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue) (2/20/25) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
2/20/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue) (2/21/25) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
2/21/2025 |
The Monkey |
Neon |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
2.88 |
|
2/21/2025 |
The Unbreakable Boy |
Lionsgate & Kingdom Story Company |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$37,500,000 |
3.75 |
|
2/22/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue) (2/22/25) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
2/23/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue) (2/23/25) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
2/27/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (2/27/25) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
2/27/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (2/27/25) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
2/28/2025 |
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie |
Ketchup Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$6,700,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$10,800,000 |
3.60 |
|
2/28/2025 |
Last Breath |
Focus Features |
$3,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$16,250,000 |
3.25 |
|
2/28/2025 |
Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX -Beginning- |
GKIDS |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
2/28/2025 |
My Dead Friend Zoe |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
||||||
3/1/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (3/1/25) |
Fathom Events |
||||||||
3/2/2025 |
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2025 Re-Issue / 4DX) (3/2/25) |
Fathom Events |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.