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As summer’s final month approaches, below are the latest key updates for upcoming theatrical releases.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Harold and the Purple Crayon hasn’t generated as much as traction as once expected across pre-sales or social media, largely attributable to the ongoing success of family films such as Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2.
- Borderlands‘ potential to build momentum may run into the Deadpool & Wolverine juggernaut as models show an updated pace at about one-third the rate of Furiosa and 25 percent behind Argylle. Director Eli Roth and the source video game’s fan bases remain points of strength, though.
- It Ends With Us continues to impress in early trends as pre-sales far exceeded expectations in early days. The adaptation led by Blake Lively continues to show promise as a late summer sleeper breakout among female audiences.
- The Blumhouse brand could be advantageous for AfrAId, but as many prepare to head back to school and work — or take one final summer vacation for the year — a release weekend ahead of the Labor Day frame may limit potential. The looming presence of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice during that holiday frame one week later is worth considering as well.
This report is also published in our newsletter where short-term, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available. Your subscription greatly supports Box Office Theory’s research and includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 7/26/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; scroll on mobile to see full chart)
as of 7/26/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; scroll on mobile to see full chart)
| Release Date | Title | Studio | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 7/26/2024 | Deadpool & Wolverine | Disney / Marvel Studios | $167,000,000 | $214,000,000 | $180,000,000 | $367,800,000 | $514,000,000 | $428,600,000 |
| 7/26/2024 | Didi (Wide) | Focus Features | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 7/26/2024 | Fabulous Four | Bleecker Street | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/2/2024 | The Firing Squad | Epoch Studios | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/2/2024 | Harold and the Purple Crayon | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $5,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $7,000,000 (-50%) | $17,000,000 | $33,500,000 | $25,600,000 (-50%) |
| 8/2/2024 | My Old Ass (Limited) | Amazon / MGM | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/2/2024 | Trap | Warner Bros. Pictures | $18,000,000 | $26,000,000 | $24,000,000 | $44,500,000 | $69,000,000 | $68,000,000 |
| 8/9/2024 | Borderlands | Lionsgate | $13,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $14,500,000 (-9%) | $26,800,000 | $46,900,000 | $33,500,000 (-9%) |
| 8/9/2024 | Cuckoo | Neon | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/9/2024 | Flynt Strong | MGM | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/9/2024 | Colleen Hoover’s It Ends With Us | Sony Pictures | $15,000,000 | $24,500,000 | $21,000,000 (+40%) | $40,000,000 | $79,200,000 | $69,300,000 (+40%) |
| 8/16/2024 | Alien: Romulus | Disney / 20th Century Studios | $34,000,000 | $43,000,000 | $39,000,000 | $68,000,000 | $93,000,000 | $87,200,000 |
| 8/16/2024 | Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure | Falling Forward Films | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/16/2024 | Skincare | IFC Films | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/23/2024 | Blink Twice | Amazon / MGM | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/23/2024 | The Crow | Lionsgate | $7,500,000 | $11,000,000 | $9,100,000 | $15,800,000 | $28,600,000 | $22,000,000 |
| 8/23/2024 | The Forge | Sony / AFFIRM Films | $7,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $8,500,000 | $20,000,000 | $49,000,000 | $34,000,000 |
| 8/23/2024 | Slingshot | Bleecker Street | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/29/2024 | Shaun of the Dead (2024 Re-Issue in Dolby Cinema) | Focus Features | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/30/2024 | 1992 | Lionsgate | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/30/2024 | AfrAId | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $7,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $14,500,000 | $34,600,000 | $18,000,000 |
| 8/30/2024 | City of Dreams | Roadside Attractions | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/30/2024 | Reagan | ShowBiz Direct | n/a | n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.