This weekend’s forecast is short and sweet as summer winds down over the next couple of weeks, kids return to school, and parents return to regular work schedules.
Our forecast for key openers and holdovers is below.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- With no direct competition, Alien: Romulus will hope to leverage generally positive fan word of mouth and retention of premium screens in its second frame despite the franchise’s history of being relatively frontloaded.
- Deadpool & Wolverine stands the best chance of reclaiming the top spot as its chase weekends normalize and it, too, faces no significant market competition.
- Meanwhile, It Ends With Us is proving to draw healthy repeat business and casual appeal among its target female audiences after a respectable second weekend hold for the adaptation.
- On the opener front, Blink Twice, The Crow, and The Forge look to end up in a close race for leader among wide releases. The latter of the three is generating pre-sale activity comparable to recent faith-based studio releases such as Cabrini and Ordinary Angels.
- Coraline‘s re-release will extend this weekend after a strong $9.6 million performance last frame, although we are excluding it from this week’s chart.
Weekend Forecast
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 25 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
| Deadpool & Wolverine | Disney / Marvel Studios | $20,000,000 | $579,900,000 | ~3,600 | -33% |
| Alien: Romulus | 20th Century Studios | $16,400,000 | $72,200,000 | ~3,885 | -61% |
| It Ends With Us | Sony Pictures | $14,300,000 | $123,700,000 | ~3,500 | -40% |
| Twisters | Universal Pictures | $7,300,000 | $250,000,000 | ~3,100 | -27% |
| The Forge | Sony / AFFIRM Films | $7,000,000 | $7,000,000 | ~1,800 | NEW |
| Blink Twice | Amazon MGM Studios | $6,700,000 | $6,700,000 | ~3,000 | NEW |
| The Crow (2024) | Lionsgates | $5,800,000 | $5,800,000 | ~2,500 | NEW |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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