This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
The Christmas corridor officially arrives this weekend with two tentpoles from major studios and the latest counter-programmer from Angel Studios.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3
December 20, 2024
Paramount
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: ~$55 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $74 – 86 million
Mufasa: The Lion King
December 20, 2024
Disney
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: ~$50 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $34 – 43 million
Homestead
December 20, 2024
Angel Studios
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: n/a
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $3 – 5.5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Sonic the Hedgehog 3 remains ahead of its franchise predecessors in all market sample pre-sale metrics. Early reviews are very positive, so far earning an 87 percent fresh score from 46 Rotten Tomatoes critics. The holiday corridor should be favorable to staying power despite an expected upfront fan-rush as the series is popular with today’s generation of kids as well as nostalgic adult fans. The audience will lean slightly male, although historically the franchise has played to a fairly even split with family appeal.
- Mufasa: The Lion King is squarely within the “marathon, not a sprint” category of expectations as it paces behind the likes of Kung Fu Panda 4 and just ahead of Wonka in final pre-release modeling. A decline from the 2019 Lion King remake was always expected here, but the family audience anchor and a long corridor without much competition (beyond Sonic 3) in late December or January should still bode well for staying power an multipliers if audiences react well. Critics stand at 60 percent fresh from 84 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes thus far.
- Homestead is pacing within the usual range of expectations for Angel Studios releases, but it, too, should benefit from holiday staying power.
- Among holdovers, Wicked continues to gain ground on Moana 2, a trend likely to accelerate through the holidays. The former’s stellar word of mouth is countering the latter’s front-loaded box office run. Mufasa, while a fellow musical, is likely to dent the younger-leaning Moana 2 a bit more than the adult-driven (but still family-friendly) Wicked chase weekends.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 91 percent above the same weekend in 2023 ($85.9 million) and 32 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($243.2 million).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 22 |
Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 |
Paramount Pictures |
$80,100,000 |
NEW |
$80,100,000 |
~3,800 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$39,800,000 |
NEW |
$39,800,000 |
~4,000 |
Wicked |
Universal Pictures |
$15,900,000 |
-30% |
$386,000,000 |
~3,500 |
Moana 2 |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$12,000,000 |
-55% |
$357,200,000 |
~3,600 |
Gladiator II |
Paramount Pictures |
$5,500,000 |
-28% |
$154,700,000 |
~2,800 |
Homestead |
Angel Studios |
$3,500,000 |
NEW |
$3,500,000 |
~2,000 |
Red One |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$2,900,000 |
-32% |
$96,700,000 |
~2,300 |
Kraven the Hunter |
Sony / Columbia Pictires |
$2,300,000 |
-79% |
$16,600,000 |
~3,211 |
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever |
Lionsgate |
$1,200,000 |
-7% |
$38,600,000 |
~1,300 |
Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$1,000,000 |
-78% |
$7,100,000 |
~2,600 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.