This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Very short update this week. Trying to clear my calendar as much as possible for my birthday on Wednesday.
The Bad Guys 2
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $19 — 25 million
The Naked Gun (2025)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $13 — 18 million
Together
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4 — 7 million (5-Day WTFSS)
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- While The Fantastic Four: First Steps looks to build on positive word of mouth (92 percent audience score, 86 percent from critics on Rotten Tomatoes) while retaining IMAX and premium screens, Superman should rebound in its own way.
- The Bad Guys 2 remains a candidate to over-perform as one of the few animated options out there for families this summer, but late-stage tracking and pre-sales haven’t quite lived up to earlier projections.
- Similarly, The Naked Gun needs to step outside its core older male audience if reaching prior forecasts is going to happen. Early social buzz from industry insiders has been great, but the late review embargo lift this week isn’t doing pre-sales any favors in a market crowded by other male-driven films.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 25 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($166.7 million), led by Deadpool & Wolverine‘s second frame ($96.8 million), and 13 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($143.9 million), led by Hobbs & Shaw‘s debut ($60 million).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 3 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
The Fantastic Four: First Steps |
Disney / Marvel |
$46,200,000 |
-61% |
$206,300,000 |
~4,125 |
The Bad Guys 2 |
Universal |
$21,000,000 |
NEW |
$21,000,000 |
~3,700 |
Superman (2025) |
Warner Bros. |
$17,400,000 |
-30% |
$320,400,000 |
~3,700 |
The Naked Gun (2025) |
Paramount |
$15,500,000 |
NEW |
$15,500,000 |
~3,300 |
Jurassic World Rebirth |
Universal |
$9,000,000 |
-32% |
$318,100,000 |
~3,300 |
F1: The Movie |
Warner Bros. / Apple Studios |
$4,500,000 |
-29% |
$173,700,000 |
~2,200 |
Together |
NEON |
$3,900,000 |
NEW |
$6,000,000 |
~2,000 |
I Know What You Did Last Summer (2025) |
Sony |
$3,000,000 |
-42% |
$29,800,000 |
~1,800 |
Smurfs |
Paramount |
$2,600,000 |
-52% |
$29,300,000 |
~2,800 |
How to Train Your Dragon (2025) |
Universal |
$1,800,000 |
-38% |
$260,900,000 |
~1,900 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.