The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
A host of updates this weekend, mostly covered in the chart below. We’re also extending back to a six-week outlook.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Black Phone 2 is positioned to capitalize on Halloween and spooky season with a timely mid-October launch, reuniting writer/director Scott Derrickson with stars Ethan Hawke and Mason Thames.
- The first film was a sleeper hit success story during the early days of post-COVID era theatrical recovery, earning $90.1 million domestically and $161.4 million globally in summer 2022.
- Early trends for the sequel indicate healthy interest among core young audiences, comparable to last year’s Smile 2, though it should be cautioned that Blumhouse and various other horror franchises have historically seen diminishing returns with sequels. Still, post-release competition is minimal with a strong runway into November.
- Early festival reviews for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere are very encouraging and could signal a leggy box office run into award season.
- Jeremy Allen White’s budding star appeal will be an anchor for marketing as early observations position appeal and tracking for the film to potentially mirror A Complete Unknown.
- Turnout will lean mostly on older moviegoers and Bruce Springsteen fans, the former of which being an audience whose cinema-attending habits have diminished in recent years, so word of mouth will be key to watch for this theatrical event.
- Other updates and additions to the public chart are included below for titles such as Good Fortune, Regretting You, Gabby’s Dollhouse, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey, and Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 9/11/25
(NOTE: Additional range and pinpoint forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
9/19/2025 |
Apollo 13 (30th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
9/19/2025 |
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey |
Sony Pictures |
$3,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$19,000,000 |
||
9/19/2025 |
Him |
Universal Pictures |
$17,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$42,000,000 |
$81,000,000 |
||
9/19/2025 |
The Senior |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$15,000,000 |
||
9/19/2025 |
Waltzing With Brando |
Iconic Releasing |
||||||
9/26/2025 |
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie |
Universal Pictures |
$20,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$56,000,000 |
$88,000,000 |
||
9/26/2025 |
One Battle After Another |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$20,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$102,000,000 |
||
9/26/2025 |
The Strangers: Chapter 2 |
Lionsgate |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
||
10/3/2025 |
Anemone (Limited) |
Focus Features |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Avatar: The Way of Water (2025 Re-Release) |
Disney |
$6,500,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
||
10/3/2025 |
Bone Lake |
Bleecker Street |
||||||
10/3/2025 |
Casper (30th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
$1,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
||
10/3/2025 |
Good Boy |
IFC Entertainment Group |
$3,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$10,500,000 |
$17,000,000 |
||
10/3/2025 |
The Smashing Machine |
A24 |
$15,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$37,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
||
10/3/2025 |
Untitled Zurty Studios Film (10/3/25) |
Zurty Studios |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
After the Hunt (Limited) |
Amazon MGM Studios |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Anemone (Moderate Expansion) |
Focus Features |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Fairyland |
Lionsgate |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Kiss of the Spider Woman |
Roadside Attractions |
||||||
10/10/2025 |
Roofman |
Paramount Pictures |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
||
10/10/2025 |
Soul on Fire |
Sony Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$9,500,000 |
$34,000,000 |
||
10/10/2025 |
Tron: Ares |
Disney |
$42,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
$145,000,000 |
||
10/17/2025 |
After the Hunt (Expansion) |
Amazon MGM Studios |
||||||
10/17/2025 |
Black Phone 2 |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
10/17/2025 |
Blue Moon (Limited) |
Sony Pictures Classics |
||||||
10/17/2025 |
Good Fortune |
Lionsgate |
||||||
10/17/2025 |
Pets on a Train |
Viva Pictures |
||||||
10/17/2025 |
Truth & Treason |
Angel Studios |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Blue Moon (Expansion) |
Sony Pictures Classics |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Bugonia (Limited) |
Focus Features |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc |
Sony Pictures |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Desert Road |
Independent Films |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Eli Roth Presents: Dream Eater |
Iconic Releasing |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Shelby Oaks |
Neon |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Untitled The Horror Section Release |
Iconic Events |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Regretting You |
Paramount Pictures |
||||||
10/24/2025 |
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere |
Disney |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.