This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Him
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $18 — 27 million
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $3 — 5 million
The Senior
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $2 — 4.5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Universal hopes to cash in on the wave of strong horror performances with Him and a timely release during the start of football and Halloween season.
- Pre-sales are encouraging in our exhibitor samples with healthy leads over films such as Speak No Evil, while similar to Smile 2, at the same point before release. Walk-up business should be a factor as well since this is an original film without a built-in fan base, but that will be dependent upon word of mouth.
- A PLF presence is helpful, while demographic and social footprints are strongest among young men.
- However, the studio’s decision to lift a review embargo just half a day before domestic previews start on Thursday is concerning. Industry expectations are as conservative as a $15 million opening despite our slightly higher models at the time of writing.
- Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle will naturally see a sharp decline from its anime-record $70.6 million debut last week, but the fan-driven event will continue to draw faithful audiences and looks to retain some premium screen showtimes in its sophomore frame.
- Similarly, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale will ease from its debut weekend but should start to stabilize with its target older fan base. The Long Walk will also look to build on its positive word of mouth.
- Unfortunately, all signs for A Big Bold Beautiful Journey continue to point toward an underwhelming debut as marketing hasn’t captured the date night interest of audiences once planned for in (slightly) more optimistic forecasts.
- Meanwhile, Angel will open The Senior in efforts to appeal to its older male sports fan base, while Universal’s IMAX-only re-release of Apollo 13 could come close to the top ten for its 30th anniversary.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 2 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($74.7 million), led by Beetlejuice Beetlejuice‘s $25.9 million third frame, and 35 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($113.4 million), led by Downton Abbey‘s $31 million debut.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 21 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Him |
Universal |
$20,300,000 |
NEW |
$20,300,000 |
~3,100 |
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle |
Sony & Crunchyroll |
$14,700,000 |
-79% |
$101,700,000 |
~3,315 |
The Conjuring: Last Rites |
Warner Bros. |
$13,200,000 |
-49% |
$151,100,000 |
~3,500 |
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale |
Focus Features |
$7,600,000 |
-58% |
$32,600,000 |
~3,694 |
The Long Walk |
Lionsgate |
$6,000,000 |
-49% |
$22,200,000 |
~2,845 |
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey |
Sony |
$4,200,000 |
NEW |
$4,200,000 |
~3,000 |
The Senior |
Angel Studios |
$3,000,000 |
NEW |
$3,000,000 |
~2,000 |
Weapons |
Warner Bros. |
$1,600,000 |
-41% |
$150,100,000 |
~1,600 |
Toy Story (30th Anniversary Re-Release) |
Disney |
$1,500,000 |
-56% |
$6,000,000 |
~2,000 |
Freakier Friday |
Disney |
$1,400,000 |
-34% |
$93,200,000 |
~1,700 |
Apollo 13 (30th Anniversary IMAX Re-Release) |
Universal |
$1,100,000 |
NEW |
$1,100,000 |
~200 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.