This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $16+ million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $10 — 12 million
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $9.5 — 13 million
Regretting You
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $8.5 — 13.5 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $10 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Counter-programming is the name of the game this weekend with three major studio titles aiming for a diverse turnout (older males for Springsteen, young women for Regretting You, and young males for Chainsaw Man) — all while Black Phone 2 hopes to begin capitalizing on positive word of mouth in its first chase frame with a week before Halloween.
- Springsteen‘s pre-sales have been robust in recent weeks, although momentum has slowed over the last few days. A deeper dive into modeling highlights that demand is notably localized in major metro areas — particularly in the northeast, where Bruce is originally from and has built a strong fan base throughout his iconic career.
- Reviews have highlighted Jeremy Allen White’s strong performance, while an IMAX + premium footprint this weekend could bolster casual audience appeal among walk-up audiences.
- Still, given the target older audience and some potentially light appeal in more conservative areas of the country, we’re scaling back slightly on forecasts from previous long-range outlooks.
- Chainsaw Man is performing generally as expected with anime fans front-loading all metrics and pre-sales. Tuesday’s early access shows will likely be included with this weekend’s results. The film also claims an IMAX and premium screen presence as it splits many of those formats with Springsteen.
- Regretting You is the new “date night” option of the weekend with Colleen Hoover fans expected to turn out (she authored the original novel, as well as the source material for It Ends With Us). Meanwhile, Shelby Oaks could be a dark horse for a top ten play as the film’s director, Chris Stuckmann, boasts a large online social influencer following. In platform play, Yorgos Lanthimos’ Bugonia is pacing to stand out in its initial release.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 21 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($89.1 million), led by Venom: The Last Dance‘s $51 million opening, and 23 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($91.5 million), led by the $19.4 million sophomore frame of Maleficent: Mistress of Evil.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 26 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere |
20th Century Studios |
$17,900,000 |
NEW |
$17,900,000 |
~3,000 |
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc |
Sony & Crunchyroll |
$12,700,000 |
NEW |
$12,700,000 |
~2,800 |
Black Phone 2 |
Universal |
$12,200,000 |
-55% |
$48,600,000 |
~3,411 |
Regretting You |
Paramount |
$10,900,000 |
NEW |
$10,900,000 |
~3,200 |
Tron: Ares |
Disney |
$5,400,000 |
-51% |
$63,700,000 |
~3,300 |
Good Fortune |
Lionsgate |
$3,400,000 |
-45% |
$12,100,000 |
~2,990 |
Shelby Oaks |
Neon |
$2,500,000 |
NEW |
$2,500,000 |
~1,500 |
One Battle After Another |
Warner Bros. |
$2,300,000 |
-40% |
$65,600,000 |
~1,800 |
Roofman |
Paramount |
$2,300,000 |
-38% |
$19,500,000 |
~2,800 |
Gabby’s Dollhouse |
Universal |
$1,000,000 |
-43% |
$31,700,000 |
~2,000 |
Bugonia |
Focus |
$700,000 |
NEW |
$700,000 |
~17 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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