This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Back to the Future (40th Anniversary)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4.5 — 7 million
The Twilight Saga (5-Film Re-Issue)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4.5 — 7 million
Kpop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event (Re-Issue)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4 — 6.5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- It’s been over seven months since any weekend failed to see at least one film cross $10 million at the box office (Weapons‘ $10.5 million Labor Day frame take helped avoid that fate two months ago), but it’s a likely outcome on Halloween weekend this year as studios have shied away from major releases and the early fall box office remains in a bit of a slumber.
- Universal’s Back to the Future and Fathom’s Twilight Saga re-releases should stand out among fans, as will Netflix’s return of the Kpop Demon Hunters sing-along. Yorgos Lanthimos and Focus Features’ Bugonia will expand into wide release, but with Halloween landing on Friday, look for Black Phone 2 to have a strong shot at returning to the #1 spot in its third frame.
- While we’re not providing forecasts at this time, Warner Bros. will also re-issue Sinners in select IMAX locations.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 27 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($63.2 million), led by Venom: The Last Dance‘s $25.9 million sophomore frame, and 53 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($99.3 million), led by Terminator: Dark Fate‘s $29 million debut.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 2 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Black Phone 2 |
Universal |
$9,000,000 |
-30% |
$62,100,000 |
~3,200 |
Regretting You |
Paramount |
$6,200,000 |
-55% |
$25,600,000 |
~3,393 |
Back to the Future (40th Anniversary) |
Universal |
$5,900,000 |
NEW |
$5,900,000 |
~1,900 |
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc |
Sony & Crunchyroll |
$4,700,000 |
-74% |
$28,600,000 |
~3,003 |
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere |
20th Century Studios |
$4,300,000 |
-52% |
$16,100,000 |
~3,460 |
The Twilight Saga (2025 5-Film Re-Issue) |
Fathom Entertainment |
$4,200,000 |
NEW |
$4,200,000 |
~1,505 |
Kpop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event (Re-Issue) |
Netflix |
$4,000,000 |
NEW |
$4,000,000 |
|
Tron: Ares |
Disney |
$3,200,000 |
-35% |
$68,200,000 |
~2,600 |
Bugonia |
Focus |
$2,900,000 |
309% |
$3,900,000 |
~1,800 |
Good Fortune |
Lionsgate |
$2,000,000 |
-35% |
$15,100,000 |
~2,700 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.