This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
It’s a light weekend at the box office on the opener front, but Disney’s blockbuster animated sequel will carry much of the weight in its third frame before the same studio unleashes Avatar: Fire and Ash ahead of the Christmas and New Year’s corridor one week from now.
Ella McCay
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $2.5 — 5.5 million
Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas (2000): 25th Anniversary
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $1.8 — 3.5 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- With early holds outpacing Moana 2 at the same point last year, Zootopia 2 is a word-of-mouth hit among families of all ages. Even with competition from the new SpongeBob movie ahead, it looks to remain the marquee moviegoing choice for parents and kids through the holiday season.
- Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 will inevitably drop hard from its strong $64 million domestic bow that was anchored by young fans front-loading the debut. It’ll be interesting to see if the sequel can post a slightly better sophomore frame hold than its predecessor (-76 percent) with a pure theatrical release still in play for the sequel that has garnered slightly more positive reactions in some corners thanks to numerous video game Easter eggs and jump scares which faithful viewers felt were lacking in the first film.
- Ella McCay is tracking in an underwhelming fashion with most of its core female-driven audience focused on existing releases such as Wicked: For Good and next week’s The Housemaid.
- Two re-issues will court very different moviegoers: Jim Carrey’s Grinch, which has become a regularly rotated staple of beloved holiday movies at home for the last quarter-century since its enormous $261 million domestic box office run in 2000, plus Stanley Kubrick’s The Shining celebrates its 45th anniversary with limited showtimes in IMAX.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $75 million+. That would be 14 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($87.6 million, led by Moana 2‘s $26.5 million third weekend) and 32 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($110.4 million, led by Jumanji: The Next Level‘s $59.3 million debut).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 14 |
Expected Location Count (as of Tue) |
Zootopia 2 |
Disney |
$30,900,000 |
-29% |
$263,100,000 |
~3,900 |
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 |
Universal |
$17,200,000 |
-73% |
$91,600,000 |
~3,412 |
Wicked: For Good |
Universal |
$10,400,000 |
-40% |
$314,600,000 |
~3,800 |
JUJUTSU KAISEN: Execution |
GKIDS |
$3,400,000 |
-66% |
$16,700,000 |
~1,833 |
Ella McCay |
20th Century Studios |
$2,500,000 |
NEW |
$2,500,000 |
~2,500 |
Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas (2000): 25th Anniversary |
Universal |
$2,400,000 |
NEW |
$2,400,000 |
~1,600 |
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t |
Lionsgate |
$2,300,000 |
-34% |
$59,000,000 |
~2,400 |
Eternity |
A24 |
$2,000,000 |
-27% |
$12,800,000 |
~2,400 |
Hamnet |
Focus Features |
$1,900,000 |
-18% |
$7,200,000 |
~1,500 |
The Shining (45th Anniversary) |
Warner Bros. |
$850,000 |
NEW |
$850,000 |
TBD |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.