This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Note: Until further notice, we’ll be focusing on the top five films each week (with pinpoint forecasts) in the year-over-year comparisons and chart below, plus key new releases that may occasionally fall outside the projected top five.
Backrooms
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $50 — 68 million
The Breadwinner
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $7 — 14 million
Pressure
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $5 — 9 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Backrooms is easily on course for a new studio opening record by A24, currently belonging to Alex Garland’s Civil War ($25.7 million). Pre-sales are far and away beyond even the most optimistic expectations a few weeks ago as the game adaptation rivals the likes of Scream 7 and Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 in the universe of pre-release trends.
- That said, we should be mindful of potential ceilings when it comes to mainstream viewers and walk-up sales — especially now that summer vacation is in full force.
- Fresh off an expected-to-above-expected debut, Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu will retain IMAX and many premium screens as it begins its sophomore weekend with hopes of catering to casual fans and family moviegoers in the face of the horror-dominated market (more on that other half of that in the next bulletpoint).
- Obsession is defying everything we know about typical box office patterns. Our sophomore weekend forecast last week was compiled nearly 48 hours before weekday holds were reported, ultimately indicating that it would turn into a true phenomenon by increasing from its $17.2 million debut to a $24 million second weekend.
- Daily holds remain utterly impressive since Memorial Day weekend. The only thing standing in its way will be Backrooms itself as they share some crossover horror audience, but when a film catches fire like this, it tends to develop a run uniquely its own. Forecasts are as volatile as ever.
- The Breadwinner has unfortunately fallen short of our long range modeling, but maintains a decent footprint in middle America markets often overlooked by industry tracking. With that in mind, we still aren’t seeing enough momentum in pre-sales as opening weekend approaches, indicating our social media-focused approach may have been too aggressive (Nate Bargatze’s audience drove excellent interaction and trailer views in the months leading up to release).
- Additionally, the introduction of a “Nate Rate” (cheaper movie tickets) in late-marketing promo pushes also resulted in average ticket price modeling being too bullish. At this point, we’re far more conservative in hopes that walk-up and family-focused business in the heartland will still manage to get the film as close as possible to previous ranges, but it will come down almost entirely to post-opening moviegoing habits that aren’t observable in pre-sale and other tracking tools.
- Pressure will also serve as counter-programming this weekend following healthy Memorial Day early access showings and an older moviegoing base. The WWII dramatic thriller offers timely subject matter heading into the summer of America’s Semiquincentennial (250th birthday).
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 5 films are tracking to earn a projected $129 million+. That would be 1 percent above the same weekend in 2025 ($127.4 million, led by Lilo & Stitch‘s $61.8 million second weekend) and 11 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($145.5 million, led by the $47.8 million debut of Godzilla: King of the Monsters).
NOTE: Beginning soon, the full weekend forecast chart below will be available exclusively through our Substack. Click here to become a subscriber.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 31 |
Estimated Location Count (as of Tue) |
Backrooms |
A24 |
$55,400,000 |
NEW |
$55,400,000 |
3,000 |
Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu |
Disney (Lucasfilm) |
$29,600,000 |
-64% |
$144,200,000 |
4,300 |
Obsession |
Focus Features |
$20,900,000 |
-13% |
$97,300,000 |
2,500 |
Michael |
Lionsgate |
$13,300,000 |
-36% |
$340,800,000 |
2,900 |
The Breadwinner |
Sony |
$10,000,000 |
NEW |
$10,000,000 |
3,300 |
The Devil Wears Prada 2 |
Disney (20th) |
$8,000,000 |
-37% |
$211,400,000 |
2,900 |
Pressure |
Focus Features |
$6,000,000 |
NEW |
$6,000,000 |
1,825 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.