Short and sweet update this week, so we’re going paywall-less.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Current Weekend
- Avengers Endgame: Encore posted $3.8 million from Thursday previews, in line with expectations going into the weekend. Ranges remain favorable toward $20 million-plus this weekend, although some of the bonus footage has leaked online. Always tough to measure that kind of potential impact, especially with a re-release.
- Primetime posted $2.7 million from previews yesterday as it continues to perform beyond early expectations. Weekend outlooks remain in a wide range between $15 million and $22 million (the low end is looking unlikelier, though) as we’re monitoring how pre-sale and/or metro-heavy the film is in early shows.
- A fellow A24 release Backrooms-like multiplier gets the pic to just a hair over $20 million this weekend. Our final forecast pinpoint was $18.1 million, though some models obviously indicate it could go a bit higher. Gen Z appeal remains a standout.
- Full analysis and long range forecasts available to our Substack subscribers
4-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 9/24/26
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
10/2/2026 |
Digger |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$17,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
$44,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
$63,000,000 |
10/2/2026 |
Verity |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$15,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$38,000,000 |
$70,000,000 |
$53,800,000 |
10/9/2026 |
Other Mommy |
Universal Pictures |
$28,500,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$31,000,000 |
$69,000,000 |
$110,000,000 |
$81,000,000 |
10/9/2026 |
The Social Reckoning |
Sony Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$48,000,000 |
$38,000,000 |
10/16/2026 |
Street Fighter (2026) |
Paramount Pictures |
$25,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$86,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
10/16/2026 |
Whalefall |
Disney |
$12,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$43,000,000 |
10/23/2026 |
Ali G.: Who Iz I? |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
10/23/2026 |
Clayface |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$20,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
$59,000,000 |
10/23/2026 |
Klara and the Sun |
Sony Pictures |
$3,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$13,750,000 |
10/23/2026 |
Wildwood |
Fathom Entertainment |
$6,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
10/30/2026 |
Christmas at the Kringles |
Briarcliff |
$500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.