Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- After two of the biggest Thanksgiving weekends on record in 2024 and 2025, anchored by the likes of debuts from Moana 2 and Zootopia 2 alongside second weekends from each Wicked film, 2026’s Turkey Day frame is likely to appear a little more modest in our early projections… but in a year that’s seeing the best box office haul since pre-COVID, and with “Dunesday” still around the corner, that’s nothing to worry about.
- Full analysis and long range forecasts available to our Substack subscribers
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 10/22/26
Full analysis and long range forecasts available to our Substack subscribers
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
10/30/2026 |
Christmas at the Kringles |
Briarcliff |
$500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
11/5/2026 |
Ramayana: Part 1 |
Sony |
$11,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
11/6/2026 |
The Cat in the Hat (2026) |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$25,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$108,000,000 |
$144,000,000 |
$107,000,000 |
11/6/2026 |
Drummer Boy |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
11/6/2026 |
Godzilla Minus Zero |
GKIDS |
$25,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$29,000,000 |
$53,000,000 |
$94,000,000 |
$70,000,000 |
11/6/2026 |
I Play Rocky (Limited) |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$500,000 |
|||
11/6/2026 |
Jimmy |
Fathom Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
11/6/2026 |
Wild Horse Nine |
Disney |
$2,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
11/11/2026 |
Ghost Soldier |
Sony Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$4,400,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
11/13/2026 |
Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol |
Paramount Pictures |
$15,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$125,000,000 |
$102,000,000 |
11/13/2026 |
How to Rob a Bank |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$11,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$37,000,000 |
11/13/2026 |
I Play Rocky (Expansion) |
Amazon MGM Studios |
||||||
11/13/2026 |
Victorian Psycho |
Bleecker Street |
$2,500,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
11/20/2026 |
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping |
Lionsgate |
$65,000,000 |
$84,000,000 |
||||
11/25/2026 |
Disney’s Hexed |
Disney |
||||||
11/25/2026 |
Focker-In-Law |
Universal Pictures |
||||||
11/25/2026 |
Hershey |
Angel Studios |
All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.