Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: Will THE MANDALORIAN & GROGU ($71M+ 3-Day) Help Revive STAR WARS on the Big Screen for Memorial Weekend?

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Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• The Mandalorian & Grogu (May 22 / Disney & Lucasfilm)
  • After a six-and-a-half-year absence, the Star Wars franchise returns to the big screen, following 2019’s Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker.
  • The franchise has since encountered some of its highest highs and lowest lows in terms of critical reception, fan enthusiasm, and broader casual audience goodwill. Much of the momentum built by the enormous cinematic success of early Disney-era films, especially The Force Awakens and Rogue One, was diminished by highly divisive creative choices as the IP was pivoted toward a streaming strategy during the pandemic.
  • One of the bright spots early in that era was The Mandalorian itself, developed by Jon Favreau (who helms this big screen feature) alongside franchise veteran Dave Filoni, who is set to take over the reigns of Lucasfilm with Lynwen Brennan as industry veteran and accomplished producer Kathleen Kennedy steps down after more than a decade.
  • To boot, the character of Grogu (a.k.a. “Baby Yoda”) became an instant pop culture icon with his 2019 debut in the series. Combined with the return of Pedro Pascal as the (now “other”) title character, die-hard fans and some casual Star Wars viewers — especially families — should be upfront drivers for this cinematic follow-up to the streaming series over Memorial Day weekend as summer vacations begin.
    • Favreau’s previous directorial success and the promise of a return to more grounded, practical effects in this film will also be appealing to more avid followers of the series, while the potential for a standalone adventure could prove to be a universal audience strength.
  • On the other side of that coin, streaming-t0-big screen transitions for other franchises (namely the Marvel Cinematic Universe) have not played out to the same level of box office success as their predecessors. Some of this can be attributed to possibly having a different core audience (the at-home viewers), but equally so, the shared oversaturation of content and middling-to-poor reception of other undercooked storylines, whether or not they were directly associated with the originating spin-off.
    • Additionally, there is the question of how Disney can market the stakes of this film since it essentially serves as a sequel-prequel in the middle of previously established Star Wars lore in the primary feature films, while notably not centering around most of the parent franchise’s pillars (Jedi, Sith, forward-moving mythology, universe-ending threats, etc.).
    • In that regard, The Mandalorian & Grogu has similar mountains to climb as The Marvels, Captain America: Brave New World, and Thunderbolts* did for Disney’s MCU going into their theatrical launches.
  • Ultimately, word of mouth will be key in the middle of a busy summer slate. Star Wars films are not typically as front-loaded as might seem obvious for a property with such a large fan base, but that speaks to its equally as large (or larger) family audience when the stories work as crowd-pleasers rather than homework for the next (or even previous) chapter.
  • The film’s position as the first bona fide family-friendly tentpole since April’s The Super Mario Galaxy Movie also does it some favors for built-up demand, as will a blanket IMAX and premium screen presence.
    • From there, everything comes down to general audience buzz. Many fans will show up on opening weekend, but the likes of The Breadwinner (May 29), Masters of the Universe (June 5), Disclosure Day (June 12), and Toy Story 5 (June 19) will each vie for their own portions of the usual male- and kid-driven demographics the Star Wars franchise has often exceled among even when internet “fandom” and cinephile reception was less than stellar.
  • While the recent Super Bowl ad was met with mixed reception online, internet reactions are not always fully indicative of wider commercial interest. Following next week’s presentation at CinemaCon, we may revisit forecasts as marketing continues to evolve ahead of late-stage tracking metrics and ticket pre-sales.
• Other updates:
  • Michael (April 24) continues to accelerate in pre-sale activity as general showtimes are pacing more strongly than a week ago. Some fan-driven interest could still be in play here, but so also may be the film’s walk-up potential with moviegoers in and over the 45-50 age bracket on opening weekend. Reception remains a large unknown, and given the competition after it, we can’t rule out a somewhat front-loaded run yet.
  • The Devil Wears Prada 2 (May 1) remains strong in pre-release tracking as industry observations are close to our previously published ranges. Internal modeling continues to suggest a breakout debut with potential for legs through Mother’s Day in its second frame and beyond into early summer. Minimal competition and the return of its all-star cast whowill appeal to multiple generations of a primarily female-driven audience are still top-of-mind in forecasts which could see the ceiling rise again before all is said and done.

Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 4/9/26

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