The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Devil Wears Prada 2 (Disney & 20th Century / May 1)
- With $10 million from Thursday’s domestic previews, the legacy sequel remains on pace to reach expectations of more than $70 million in its domestic debut, with potential to reach our final pinpoint forecast ($84.3 million) earlier this week.
- Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu (Disney & Lucasfilm / May 22)
- Pre-sales remain mostly in line with expectations as of a few weeks ago, leaning slightly on the higher end of previous ranges as average ticket prices throughout 2026 have increased at a slightly higher clip than models once assumed. Grogu‘s appeal to families and kids with 3D offerings will no doubt be in play over the busy four-day holiday opening, but we still emphasize the IP’s historically front-loaded nature warrants caution in ballooning expectations this far from release.
- The Breadwinner (Sony / May 29)
- Per our January analysis below (with some minor edits) before the studio delayed to an early summer release:
- Traditional comedies have had a rough go at the box office in recent years, with only occasional exceptions. That said, Nate Bargatze is riding a wave of historic popularity following his record-breaking stand-up comedy tours, streaming specials, viral skits from multiple Saturday Night Live, and numerous other entertainment industry appearances.
- Early pre-sales are notable not just for the longer-than-usual window granted to the movie, but for their respectable volume within that scope as well. Even with Nate’s fan following in mind, original comedies don’t typically pop in audience trends until much closer to release.
- With a widespread fan base and significant family appeal, file this one under the “sleeper” category as a potential summer hit to watch for — particularly among middle America moviegoers with crossover appeal to faith- and values-based audiences.
- Per our January analysis below (with some minor edits) before the studio delayed to an early summer release:
- Backrooms (A24 / May 29)
- A24’s cinephile following should form a potent combination across the niche fan base of the online sensation created, and now developed for film, by Kane Parsons. While early pre-sale trends initially indicate some front-loaded signals relative to Markiplier’s Iron Lung early on, the backing of A24’s marketing and social muscle could help re-ignite buzz among genre fans closer to opening day.
- Including over 27 million views for the recently released official trailer on YouTube alone, the universe of social metrics is healthy — though, admittedly, mostly indicative of the passionate following behind the 4chan thread-turned-game and viral sensation.
- Counter-programming against a slew of family-friendly titles in early summer will be a smart box office play for horror aficionados and liminal video game fans.
- Pressure (Focus / May 29)
- Taking a page from Focus Features’ own success with Conclave and Last Breath, this D-Day thriller led by Brendan Fraser and Andrew Scott should cater well to adult audiences looking for dramatic thriller vibes amid the backdrop of other commercial summer releases.
Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 4/30/26
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Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
5/8/2026 |
Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) |
Paramount Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
5/8/2026 |
Mortal Kombat II |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$40,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$80,000,000 |
$109,000,000 |
$96,000,000 |
5/8/2026 |
The Sheep Detectives |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$11,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$33,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
$47,000,000 |
5/13/2026 |
Top Gun (40th Anniversary) |
Paramount Pictures |
$1,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
5/13/2026 |
Top Gun: Maverick (2026 Re-Issue) |
Paramount Pictures |
$1,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$2,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$3,000,000 |
5/15/2026 |
In the Grey |
Black Bear |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$17,500,000 |
5/15/2026 |
Is God Is |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$4,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
5/15/2026 |
Obsession |
Focus Features |
$7,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$43,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
5/22/2026 |
I Love Boosters |
Neon |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
||||
5/22/2026 |
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu |
Disney |
$74,000,000 ($90,000,000 4-day) |
$90,000,000 ($109,500,000 4-day) |
||||
5/22/2026 |
Passenger |
Paramount Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
||||
5/22/2026 |
Tuner (Limited) |
Black Bear |
||||||
5/29/2026 |
Backrooms |
A24 |
$14,500,000 |
$27,000,000 |
||||
5/29/2026 |
The Breadwinner |
Sony Pictures |
$20,000,000 |
$29,000,000 |
||||
5/29/2026 |
Pressure |
Focus Features |
$3,500,000 |
$7,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges are reflective of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not intended as final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances factored into our modeling.