The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Late August is light on major releases, so our update this weekend continues to focus on summer’s final run of key openers over the next few weeks.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The Fantastic Four: First Steps continues at an expected pace for yet another week as tracking and pre-sales fit within the usual Marvel mode, accounting for direct competition against Superman‘s first week of release (which has displayed early positive holds).
- Acceleration on the sales front is expected next week as the film’s review embargo lifts late
Monday nightFriday night (social reactions) and Tuesday morning (full critics’ reviews).- Current modeling puts Thursday’s previews on pace for $22 million at the low end, potentially climbing to $25 million or slightly more depending on final buzz momentum after those early industry reactions drop online.
- As Smurfs looks to perform quietly in its debut this weekend, models increasingly favor The Bad Guys 2 becoming a solid animated option for kids and parents.
- The Naked Gun remains highly volatile on the forecast front as a legacy IP slapstick comedy with targeted appeal to older male audiences, but early social reactions from industry critics has been quite positive.
- We remain encouraged by Freakier Friday‘s positioning as a late summer, female-driven, family-friendly comedy given its legacy IP status across several generations. Pre-sales aren’t likely to pick up until closer to release as Disney’s marketing machine remains honed in on Fantastic Four, but we’ll continue to monitor.
- Similarly, Weapons remains a target for a potential breakout in three weeks as an elevated horror tentpole with IMAX footprints and plenty of heat from genre fans, social buzz, and trailer imprints.
5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 7/17/25
(NOTE: Pinpoint forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
7/25/2025 |
The Fantastic Four: First Steps |
Disney |
$125,000,000 |
$145,000,000 |
$277,000,000 |
$382,000,000 |
||
7/25/2025 |
The Home |
Roadside Attractions |
||||||
7/25/2025 |
House on Eden |
IFC Entertainment Group |
||||||
7/25/2025 |
Oh, Hi! |
Sony Pictures Classics |
||||||
7/30/2025 |
BTS Army: Forever We Are Young |
Trafalgar Releasing |
||||||
7/30/2025 |
Together |
NEON |
||||||
8/1/2025 |
Architecton |
A24 |
||||||
8/1/2025 |
The Bad Guys 2 |
Universal Pictures |
$26,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$101,000,000 |
$143,000,000 |
||
8/1/2025 |
The Naked Gun (2025) |
Paramount Pictures |
$23,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$62,000,000 |
$95,000,000 |
||
8/3/2025 |
Sunset Boulevard |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
8/6/2025 |
Sketch |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
||
8/8/2025 |
Freakier Friday |
Disney |
$45,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$115,000,000 |
$160,000,000 |
||
8/8/2025 |
Weapons |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$25,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$72,000,000 |
$130,000,000 |
||
8/14/2025 |
Shin Godzilla |
GKIDS |
||||||
8/15/2025 |
Americana |
Lionsgate |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
||
8/15/2025 |
Eli Roth Presents: Jimmy and Stiggs |
Iconic Releasing |
||||||
8/15/2025 |
Highest 2 Lowest |
A24 |
||||||
8/15/2025 |
Nobody 2 |
Universal Pictures |
$12,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
$47,000,000 |
||
8/17/2025 |
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (1990) 35th Anniversary |
Fathom Entertainment |
||||||
8/21/2025 |
Black Swan (15th Anniversary in IMAX) |
Searchlight Pictures |
||||||
8/22/2025 |
Afterburn |
Falling Forward Films |
||||||
8/22/2025 |
Eden |
Vertical Entertainment |
||||||
8/22/2025 |
Honey Don’t! |
Focus Features |
$3,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.