Box Office Weekend Forecast: A MINECRAFT MOVIE Is Soaring Past Prior Tracking, On Pace for Potential $100M+ Domestic Debut

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

It’s CinemaCon week, and after one of the worst quarters (both dollar- and attendance-wise) in box office history outside COVID years since consistent and publicly available measuring began in the 1980s, the industry could really use a sizable win before summer.

We’re about to get it.

A Minecraft Movie
Warner Bros.
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: ~$65 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $90 – 110 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Analysis here will be fairly brief: Minecraft has seen a near-unprecedented acceleration in pre-sales and social tracking over the last week for a film that — despite a massive fan base, expected family appeal, and dearth of competition — is generating mixed reviews (52 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). This comes after a marketing campaign that, while much stronger in recent days and weeks, ultimately began on the wrong foot with a trailer that spawned pessimistic buzz among fans young and old.
• That being said, Minecraft is a freight train that can’t be stopped right now. Late-stage exhibitor trends have seen the film’s pace come from significantly behind the likes of Five Nights at Freddy’s and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice as recently as seven days ago to matching or exceeding them this week. Interest among women is notably healthy for a video game property, likely reflecting the moms out there planning for the kids (and, let’s be honest, Jason Momoa’s presence doesn’t hurt).
• There is clear and present pent-up demand for a major family-driven tentpole accessible by all ages and demographics. Jack Black, Momoa, Gen Z- and Alpha-driven IP, and expected strong play among Hispanic families are feeding those inherent advantages, while a growing speculation that “ironic viewing” among youngsters could be in play similar as it was for Minions: The Rise of Gru three years ago) during the “GentleMinions” social meme phase.
• If there’s any caution to be had here, it’s the fact that this is still a video game franchise and the peak of spring break season (among other intangibles) could be influencing some pre-sales trends. Audience reception will be key to watch for any possible front-loading, but this may end up more akin to the kind of review-proof commercial durability that The Super Mario Bros. Movie enjoyed two years ago.
• Not to be forgotten is the second installment of The Chosen: Last Supper following last week’s franchise-best debut by Part 1. As expected, demand for Part 2 is not quite at the same level, but still trending above the comparable second chapter of Season 3 when it released in theaters.
• Princess Mononoke will expand into additional theaters with its 4K re-issue this weekend, but we’re excluding it from forecasts.

Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)

This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 69 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($81.1 million, led by Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire‘s second frame) and 1 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($137.9 million, led by the openings of Shazam! and Pet Sematary).

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

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