Box Office Weekend Forecast: F1: THE MOVIE ($55-70M+) and M3GAN 2.0 ($14M+) Debut on Pre-Fourth of July Frame, Hoping to Liven Up a Sluggish June

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

I’m on a brief vacation this week (a first in close to 11 years…) and haven’t had a chance to revisit finalized models, so we’re going with a fairly wide range on F1: The Movie leaning on previous forecasts which baked a strong post-Thursday presence based on pre-sale trends. Those are holding up very strong from what I can see, but we want to acknowledge the possibility of this film having a strong fan rush in addition to its nature as an original film. It’s possible our model is overly bullish, but it’s well-positioned to be a much-needed midsummer word-of-mouth hit even if it opens at the lower end of our target range.

M3GAN 2.0, unfortunately, remains likely to fall short of its predecessor’s performance as it trends toward our earliest expectations.

Lastly, we’ll be publishing only the top five this week, expecting to be back on a semi-normal schedule next week for Jurassic World Rebirth and the Fourth of July frame.

F1: The Movie
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $55 – 74 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$40 – 50 million

M3GAN 2.0
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $14 – 19 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: ~$20 million

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• See above.

Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)

All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.

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