This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Short analysis this week, but the full table is below.
Predator: Badlands
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $24 — 30 million
Traditional Industry Tracking: $25 million+
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Predator: Badlands has continued to ramp up in momentum this week, favoring the outside-the-box models we mentioned last week as its late-stage pre-sales have trend more in line with the likes of Ballerina ($24.5 million domestic opening weekend) and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($58.4 million) than the fan-heavy patterns of Tron: Ares ($33.2 million) and Furiosa ($26.3 million). That doesn’t necessarily mean Badlands will perform at the dollar-for-dollar level of Apes or fellow legacy IP comp Alien: Romulus ($42 million), but positive reviews (88 percent fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) will at least bolster some potential casual audience interest after a dreary October for moviegoing.
- Otherwise, holdovers are going to be light again this week, but low-key openers Nuremberg, Die My Love, Sarah’s Oil, Christy, and Karen Kingsbury’s The Christmas Ring (not currently forecasted) all have shots to crack the top ten.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn a projected $55.2 million. That would be 11 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($62.1 million, led by Venom: The Last Dance‘s $15.9 million third frame) and 45 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($100.5 million, led by Midway‘s $17.9 million start).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 9 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Predator: Badlands |
20th Century Studios |
$26,500,000 |
NEW |
$26,500,000 |
3,725 |
Regretting You |
Paramount |
$6,200,000 |
-21% |
$37,800,000 |
~3,000 |
Black Phone 2 |
Universal |
$5,000,000 |
-40% |
$69,700,000 |
~3,000 |
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc |
Sony & Crunchyroll |
$3,600,000 |
-42% |
$37,900,000 |
~2,700 |
Nuremberg |
Sony Pictures Classics |
$3,500,000 |
NEW |
$3,500,000 |
~1,200 |
Bugonia |
Focus |
$2,800,000 |
-44% |
$10,800,000 |
~2,043 |
Die My Love |
Mubi |
$2,500,000 |
NEW |
$2,500,000 |
~1,900 |
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere |
20th Century Studios |
$2,400,000 |
-36% |
$20,400,000 |
~2,900 |
Sarah’s Oil |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$1,500,000 |
NEW |
$1,500,000 |
2,410 |
Christy |
Black Bear |
$1,200,000 |
NEW |
$1,200,000 |
~2,000 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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