This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
The weekend ahead looks to continue late summer’s box office surge with another healthy opener complementing the reigning holdover prowess of Deadpool & Wolverine, It Ends With Us, and Twisters.
Alien: Romulus
August 16, 2024
20th Century Studios
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $28 million+
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast: $41 – 54 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- The sci-fi horror franchise follow-up has continued to generate strong pre-release interest and sales among faithful fans of the brand, particularly across premium formats. That latter element could be important to watch throughout the weekend as it will inflate average ticket prices.
- Conversely, post-Thursday preview business is pacing at a similar rate as the likes of Furiosa and Nope, both of which were brand-driven, R-rated comps (Jordan Peele’s fan base in the latter title’s case).
- Mixed results from more recent Alien franchise and franchise-adjacent installments could also limit some of the casual audience appeal that is common with sci-fi films (unless, of course, this release succeeds in playing strongly to the walk-up horror crowd).
- While reviews were still embargoed at the time of this writing, it’s challenging to assess what impact they may or may not have on opening weekend. Regardless, pre-release marketing and online hype engagement has been successful up to this point.
Other Notable Wide Releases:
- Coraline (15th Anniversary) — forecast provided below
- My Penguin Friend
- Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure
- Skincare
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 43 percent above the same weekend in 2023 ($91.8 million) and 29 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($101.9 million).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 18 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
| Alien: Romulus | 20th Century Studios | $46,000,000 | $46,000,000 | ~3,800 | NEW |
| Deadpool & Wolverine | Disney / Marvel Studios | $27,400,000 | $544,500,000 | ~3,900 | -49% |
| It Ends With Us | Sony Pictures | $24,300,000 | $100,200,000 | ~3,611 | -51% |
| Twisters | Universal Pictures | $9,600,000 | $238,500,000 | ~3,200 | -36% |
| Coraline (15th Anniversary 2024 Re-Issue) | Fathom Events | $6,800,000 | $6,800,000 | n/a | NEW |
| Despicable Me 4 | Universal / Illumination | $5,500,000 | $340,100,000 | ~2,800 | -31% |
| Inside Out 2 | Disney / Pixar | $3,400,000 | $642,400,000 | ~1,700 | -30% |
| Trap | Warner Bros. Pictures | $3,300,000 | $34,900,000 | ~2,700 | -50% |
| Borderlands | Lionsgate | $2,900,000 | $14,100,000 | ~3,125 | -66% |
| Harold and the Purple Crayon | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $1,900,000 | $16,600,000 | ~2,800 | -38% |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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