This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Summer movie season comes to a close this weekend with a slew of holdovers likely to fend off a handful of newcomers to the box office market. Our weekend forecast:
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Without significant competition, plus a reallocation of premium screens in some cases, the likes of Deadpool & Wolverine, Alien: Romulus, It Ends With Us, and Twisters should remain near the top of the chart.
- Twisters, in particular, could see excellent retention as it revisits 4DX screens, where it received particular praise as part of the film’s broader positive word of mouth late this summer. Many of those 4DX showtimes have sold out through the weekend.
- Among openers, Reagan could be a dark horse candidate to crack the top five this weekend as buzz is strong across southern and conservative markets often overlooked by traditional industry tracking standards. However, we have not received updated guidance on a final location count from the film’s distributor, which could impact projections.
- Sony and Blumhouse will hope to capture the latter’s built-in brand appeal with AfrAId courting a young adult audience. Pre-release metrics are more in line with the likes of Tarot and Imaginary than M3GAN, however.
- Meanwhile, family films should post strong holds as parents and kids soak up one last weekend before school begins in the remaining parts of the country where it hasn’t already returned to session.
- Without a major new release, it’s also likely many casual moviegoers sit out this weekend for final summer vacations — especially with the strong buzz backing Beetlejuice Beetlejuice‘s debut next weekend.
Other Notable Wide Releases:
- 1992 (Lionsgate)
- City of Dreams (Roadside Attractions)
- Shaun of the Dead Dolby Re-Release (Focus Features)
- Slingshot (Bleecker Street)
- You Gotta Believe (Well Go USA)
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films (3-day only) are tracking to earn 16 percent under the same weekend in 2023 ($79.2 million, when The Equalizer 3 earned the second best Labor Day opening in history with $42.8 million) and 5 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($63.9 million, when no major openers bowed on Labor Day weekend).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend | FSSM Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Monday, September 2 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
| Deadpool & Wolverine | Disney / Marvel Studios | $14,200,000 | -22% | $18,400,000 | $602,700,000 | ~3,700 |
| Alien: Romulus | 20th Century Studios | $9,700,000 | -41% | $12,600,000 | $91,700,000 | ~3,600 |
| It Ends With Us | Sony Pictures | $8,500,000 | -27% | $11,100,000 | $137,200,000 | ~3,400 |
| Reagan | ShowBiz Direct | $7,700,000 | NEW | $9,300,000 | $9,300,000 | ~2,700 (updated) |
| Twisters | Universal Pictures | $5,000,000 | -18% | $6,600,000 | $257,300,000 | ~3,300 |
| Despicable Me 4 | Universal / Illumination | $4,700,000 | 11% | $6,500,000 | $356,500,000 | ~2,600 |
| The Forge | Sony / AFFIRM Films | $4,600,000 | -31% | $6,300,000 | $15,900,000 | ~1,900 |
| AfrAId | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $5,000,000 | NEW | $6,000,000 | $6,000,000 | ~2,900 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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