This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Following last week’s unfortunate misfire of the Joker sequel, this weekend’s slew of new releases will hope to make up for some lost ground in the early-to-mid October market. One horror film in particular could stand out in a bigger way than once expected.
Terrifier 3
October 11, 2024
Cineverse / Iconic Events
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $10+ million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $11 – 19 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Terrifier 3 continues to impress in pre-release social and pre-sales models as fans of the niche franchise are sending existing showtimes to near-capacity. The key variables driving volatility at this stage will be how much further beyond that core audience the film can reach, as well as how many more showtimes and screens exhibitors will be willing or able to allocate given the somewhat crowded new release marketplace and the brand’s own hard-R content. Thus far, trends indicate a heavy lean on upfront business Thursday night bleeding into Friday night due to capacity limitations.
- Among other openers, Saturday Night is likely to stand out as it expands into wide release with strong reviews and early Oscar buzz on its side. Still, the prestige drama market has been challenged in post-pandemic times as older audiences have gravitated more toward streaming for certain types of films.
- Meanwhile, My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next will mainly draw its anime franchise fans, while The Apprentice and Piece by Piece will also rival for debuts in a similar range.
- On the holdover front, the Joker sequel will retain many premium screens but we still expect a sharp decline given near-universal reception to the film has been sour. The Wild Robot should begin to stabilize as it continues to benefit from strong word of mouth, no competition, and many kids out of school next Monday for Indigenous Peoples’ Day. Similarly, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice continues to play well in its mid-to-late life cycle weeks as reception and Halloween season propel it.
Other Notable Wide Releases Not Forecast Below:
- The Nightmare Before Christmas (2024 Re-Issue) (Disney)
- Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (Fathom Events)
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 49 percent below the same weekend in 2023 ($128.5 million) and 50 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($132.9 million).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 13 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
| Terrifier 3 | Cineverse / Iconic Events | $14,100,000 | NEW | $14,100,000 | ~2,300 |
| The Wild Robot | Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation | $14,000,000 | -26% | $83,500,000 | ~3,800 |
| Joker: Folie à Deux | Warner Bros. Pictures | $9,400,000 | -75% | $53,600,000 | ~4,102 |
| Beetlejuice Beetlejuice | Warner Bros. Pictures | $7,500,000 | -26% | $276,000,000 | ~3,300 |
| Saturday Night | Sony Pictures | $5,800,000 | 2037% | $6,600,000 | ~2,000 |
| My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next | Toho International | $4,000,000 | NEW | $4,000,000 | ~1,800 |
| Transformers One | Paramount Pictures | $3,500,000 | -35% | $52,600,000 | ~2,700 |
| The Apprentice | Briarcliff Entertainment | $3,000,000 | NEW | $3,000,000 | 1,740 |
| Piece By Piece | Focus Features | $2,900,000 | NEW | $2,900,000 | ~1,800 |
| Speak No Evil | Universal Pictures / Blumhouse | $1,900,000 | -31% | $35,600,000 | ~1,800 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.