This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
September’s final third rolls out with the debut of Paramount’s latest incarnation of the Transformers franchise, while the Beetlejuice sequel hopes to retain a strong second place showing and two horror releases vie for their target audiences.
Transformers One
September 20, 2024
Paramount Pictures
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $30 million+
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $31 – 40 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Transformers One is tracking strongest among young male audiences with some core appeal to older, nostalgic fans of the franchise. The film carries two early access shows into traditional Thursday previews, skewing pre-sales comparisons. An 86 percent fresh score from Rotten Tomatoes critics could aid parental appeal over the weekend, though prequels tend to lose some of their event status among casual moviegoers and this particular IP has been well exposed in recent years. Competition with football and the growing buzz of next week’s The Wild Robot could also be factors to watch for.
- Ultimately, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice should remain a strong factor in its third frame with positive reception, plenty of family appeal and Halloween season as key drivers. Its biggest disadvantage for now will be the loss of premium screens to Transformers One, denting the Juice’s average ticket price and inflating the perceived drop from last weekend.
- The Substance has generated healthy traction from its early access and preview shows, plus an 89 percent fresh critics’ score of its own. The film is poised to be somewhat front-loaded as a body horror pic with limited marketing reach, but grassroots buzz is driving healthy trends among indie horror fans under those circumstances.
- Competing for some of the same horror audience, Never Let Go hopes to capture some appeal from genre fans and adult audiences by way of Halle Berry’s leading presence.
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 98 percent above the same weekend in 2023 ($42.35 million) and 26 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($113.4 million).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 22 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
| Transformers One | Paramount Pictures | $35,000,000 | NEW | $35,000,000 | 3,883 |
| Beetlejuice Beetlejuice | Warner Bros. Pictures | $26,300,000 | -49% | $226,600,000 | ~4,200 |
| Speak No Evil | Universal Pictures / Blumhouse | $5,300,000 | -53% | $20,600,000 | ~3,375 |
| The Substance | Brainstorm Media | $4,000,000 | NEW | $4,000,000 | ~1,700 |
| Never Let Go | Lionsgate | $3,600,000 | NEW | $3,600,000 | ~2,600 |
| Deadpool & Wolverine | Disney / Marvel Studios | $3,200,000 | -39% | $626,500,000 | ~2,600 |
| Reagan | ShowBiz Direct | $2,000,000 | -31% | $26,700,000 | ~1,900 |
| Am I Racist? | SDG Releasing | $1,800,000 | -60% | $8,300,000 | ~1,517 |
| It Ends With Us | Sony Pictures | $1,300,000 | -36% | $147,100,000 | ~1,800 |
| The Killer’s Game | Lionsgate | $1,300,000 | -52% | $5,000,000 | ~2,623 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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