This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
October’s final frame welcomes the trilogy-capper of the Tom Hardy-led Venom franchise under the Sony and Marvel umbrella, while Focus Features rolls out Conclave and holdovers hope to remain an important piece of the box office puzzle.
Venom: The Last Dance
October 25, 2024
Sony Pictures / Columbia
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $65 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $48 – 59 million
Conclave
October 25, 2024
Focus Features
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $4 – 6 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $5 – 9 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- As noted in recent updates, Venom: The Last Dance has not quite matched up to long-lead expectations as social growth and pre-sales in sample markets lag well behind its 2021 predecessor, Let There Be Carnage, and more recent comparable films. In general, this could be viewed as a possible casualty of the broader sentiment toward non-event comic book films among casual audiences right now. Reviews haven’t typically held this franchise back as it’s viewed more as a “fun and popcorn” time at the movies. That said, 71 critics awarding a 37 percent fresh Rotten Tomatoes score as of this writing probably won’t win over the stragglers.
- Still, the Venom franchise and its comedy lean are notorious for over-delivering on final expectations as the first two films were driven by strong walk-up sales from casual moviegoers. Even with a domestic haul below preliminary tracking last month, global numbers will ultimately tell the tale (including a stronger-than-expected performance out of China already) as it aims for a studio-expected $150 million-plus worldwide this weekend.
- Focus Features counter-programs with Edward Berger’s adaptation of Conclave, the rare PG-rated, adult-driven dramatic thriller with religious appeal and relative star power (Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, and John Lithgow) behind it. The play here is strongest with the over-45 and female crowds during an era when the more seasoned in age rarely go to movie theaters anymore. Sample market pre-sale comps are favorable versus films like The Menu and Speak No Evil, though Conclave is opening in a smaller theatrical footprint than those major studio distributions. Critics’ reviews are strong at 93 percent fresh from 89 reviews.
- On the holdover front: Smile 2 aims to ride strong reviews and word of mouth into pre-Halloween weekend with the horror audience on its side; Terrifier 3 can hope for the same after a better-than-expect sophomore weekend drop; The Wild Robot remains unchallenged in the animated space; and, We Live In Time will expand into true wide release with an estimated 2,000 locations after its strong $4.2 million expansion into semi-wide release at 985 locations last weekend.
- In general with regard to new releases and the overall market, two external factors worth keeping in mind are Halloween parties taking place on social calendars this weekend and the start of Major League Baseball’s World Series (in addition to the typical weekly consideration of football in the United States). The annual fall classic will feature two star-studded super teams, the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees, for the first time since 1981 with Game 1 on Friday and Game 2 on Saturday. That storyline is likely to dominate the two mega-media markets which also happen to be the biggest individual DMA contributions for most movies.
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 20 percent below the same weekend in 2023 ($122.5 million) and 7 percent above the same weekend in 2019 ($91.5 million).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 27 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
| Venom: The Last Dance | Sony Pictures / Columbia | $55,900,000 | NEW | $55,900,000 | 4,125 |
| Smile 2 | Paramount Pictures | $11,800,000 | -49% | $42,700,000 | ~3,619 |
| The Wild Robot | Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation | $7,200,000 | -29% | $112,300,000 | ~3,400 |
| Conclave | Focus Features | $6,700,000 | NEW | $6,700,000 | 1,742 |
| Terrifier 3 | Cineverse / Iconic Events | $6,100,000 | -34% | $46,000,000 | ~2,600 |
| Beetlejuice Beetlejuice | Warner Bros. Pictures | $3,500,000 | -30% | $289,100,000 | ~3,000 |
| We Live In Time | A24 | $3,400,000 | -19% | $9,600,000 | ~2,000 |
| Piece By Piece | Focus Features | $1,300,000 | -37% | $9,500,000 | ~1,600 |
| Transformers One | Paramount Pictures | $1,100,000 | -45% | $58,400,000 | ~1,900 |
| Saturday Night | Sony Pictures | $950,000 | -44% | $9,300,000 | ~1,800 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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