This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After early May 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.
Summer movie season is officially here. After The Fall Guy has its turn to kickstart the season after opening May 3, a handful of major studio releases will hope to generate momentum for the lucrative time of year absent any true event releases until June and July.
Last May generated $784.4 million in the domestic market thanks to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Fast X, and The Little Mermaid generating most of the mid-to-upper end blockbuster numbers.
For 2024, our projections are currently at a far more modest $566 million without any apparent event-level opening weekend at hand. Outside of 2020 and 2021 as pandemic-impacted years, that haul would represent the lowest May gross since 1998’s $510 million.
The positive outlook: six major studio releases, counting The Fall Guy and The Strangers: Chapter 1, with a variety of appeal to different audiences represents some return to consistency for the month despite the lack of expected blockbuster grosses.
Here’s how the primary releases of the month are currently tracking.
Key Tracking Factors:
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes will appeal primarily to male audiences over 25 as a franchise that’s drawn heavily from that demographic across its various iterations over the decades. Pre-sales are currently pacing 16 percent behind those of Fast X, which similarly opened in mid-May last year.
- IF will court a potential mix of audiences, leaning more heavily on families than anyone else, when it opens the week before Memorial Day weekend. Ryan Reynolds and the ensemble voice cast are driving most interest and social engagement, while John Krasinski’s directorial follow-up to the A Quiet Place films is part of the conversation among film fans. Pre-sale comparisons are skewed with the small sample size of live-action, family-targeted films in recent times, though early trends are just 9 percent off the pace of Wonka.
- The Strangers: Chapter 1 is a relative mild player among this group, though it could be a standout option for horror genre fans. The original 2008 film earned $52.6 million domestically and has gone on to become a modern cult classic. Pre-sales only just began on May 1, so tracking is a bit volatile on that end for now.
- As reported last week, Furiosa remains a bit of a wild card with heavy appeal to action fans and potential crossover between men and women thanks to Anya Taylor-Joy and Chris Hemsworth. Social buzz and trailer traction remain encouraging at this stage before pre-sales begin.
- Expectations for The Garfield Movie remain positive overall as the first major animated release of summer, positioned over a long holiday frame when many schools finish for the season. The wild card element remains familiarity and interest in the IP among that important younger demographic. With early access shows in the mix, pre-sale comparisons are currently posting 54 percent ahead of Trolls Band Together in our long range models.
This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After early May 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.
Extended 4-Week Tracking & Forecasts
as of 5/2/24
Release Date |
Title |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
Pinpoint OW Chg from Last Week |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Pinpoint Total Chg from Last Week |
Distributor |
5/10/2024 |
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes |
$40,000,000 |
$50,000,000 |
$100,000,000 |
$130,000,000 |
Disney / 20th Century Studios |
||
5/10/2024 |
Not Another Church Movie |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
||||||
5/17/2024 |
Back to Black |
Focus Features |
||||||
5/17/2024 |
If |
$28,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$87,000,000 |
$116,000,000 |
Paramount Pictures |
||
5/17/2024 |
The Strangers: Chapter 1 |
$7,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$17,700,000 |
$36,000,000 |
Lionsgate |
||
5/24/2024 |
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga |
$40,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$105,000,000 |
$160,000,000 |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
||
5/24/2024 |
The Garfield Movie |
$45,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$148,000,000 |
$201,000,000 |
Sony / Columbia Pictures |
||
5/24/2024 |
Sight |
$3,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$17,000,000 |
Angel Studios |
||
5/31/2024 |
1992 |
Lionsgate |
||||||
5/31/2024 |
Ezra |
Bleecker Street |
||||||
5/31/2024 |
Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle |
$3,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$5,300,000 |
$9,900,000 |
Sony / Crunchyroll |
||
5/31/2024 |
Robot Dreams |
Neon |
||||||
5/31/2024 |
The Young Woman and the Sea |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$33,000,000 |
Walt Disney Pictures |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.
This report is TEMPORARILY available for free, in its entirety, on our site. After early May 2024, most tracking reports will be paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access includes ad-free viewing and pinpoint forecasts alongside tracking ranges.