Despite a poor Memorial Day frame last weekend, June shows potential to amp up box office activity. It’ll be capped by two major studio releases anchoring the month’s final days before the Independence Day holiday corridor in early July.
Here’s how are June 28’s two headliners are trending in early models:
A Quiet Place: Day One
Paramount Pictures
June 28, 2024
Key Tracking Factors:
- Pre-sales are in their nascent stages, especially for a genre that typically presents as backloaded even among established franchises. A Quiet Place: Day One‘s first day of sales, which began on May 30, trended more than 120 percent ahead of Insidious: The Red Door (which earned a $33 million domestic opening weekend in July 2023) and Evil Dead Rises ($24.5 million in April 2023) on their first days in our sample markets. Those two comparison points will likely prove wildly different as we track their paces in the coming weeks, with the back-loaded Insidious growth model not currently expected to maintain the same pace.
- Although reported to be equal parts drama and science fiction, there’s no questioning a horror audience play given the success of the franchise’s first two films. Pre-release trends and social media observations indicate Day One leads anticipation among similar genre films this summer and it won’t face direct competition for some of its core audience until later in July. The lack of major breakouts from the horror genre in recent months also gives confidence in some pent-up demand for a widely appealing film from the genre.
- Although stars Emily Blunt, John Krasinski, and Cillian Murphy won’t be returning from the previous two films, Lupita Nyong’o and Joseph Quinn (of Stranger Things breakout fame), alongside the second Quiet Place film’s Djimon Hounsou, still give this prequel some notable leading names and faces.
- 2018’s original film was a sleeper breakout, posting $188 million domestically of its $50.2 million debut. Three years later, Part II marked an important mile marker in early pandemic recovery for the industry when it bowed to $47.6 million in late May and legged out to $160.2 million. Globally, the two films have earned a combined $631.6 million.
- Reception will be key, as always, and prequels can often be challenging to win over casual viewers (see the recent Furiosa performance). A different setting, lead characters, and potential tonal shift focusing new stories could counter that trend if the franchise has delivered another crowd-pleaser.
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1
Warner Bros. Pictures
June 28, 2024
Key Tracking Factors:
- While audiences over the age of 50 have gravitated away from regular theatrical moviegoing, Horizon provides the kind of old-school western canvas with a star ensemble that might bring some of them back if reception is positive. 24 Rotten Tomatoes critics have given this first chapter just a 38 percent fresh rating thus far, but it could still prove to be somewhat review-proof.
- Kevin Costner’s popularity among adult audiences remains notable thanks to his career resurgence in recent years, most notably in television’s Yellowstone series. The actor-director previously helmed Dances with Wolves and other genre projects to varying success and acclaim.
- Competition for the adult male audience in late June and early July is slim, providing a counter-programming opportunity for Horizon to stand out alongside the Quiet Place prequel, Despicable Me 4, and early-to-mid July’s Fly Me to the Moon. This is notably similar to the corridor when Sound of Freedom demolished expectations close to the Fourth of July window last summer.
This report is available as a free preview on our website. Complete 4-week, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access also includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.
as of 5/31/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode)
| Release Date | Title | Studio | MPAA Rating | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 6/7/2024 | Bad Boys: Ride or Die | Sony / Columbia Pictures | R | $45,000,000 | $55,000,000 | $48,000,000 | $130,000,000 | $176,400,000 | $150,500,000 |
| 6/7/2024 | The Watchers | Warner Bros. Pictures | PG-13 | $10,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $13,500,000 | $28,700,000 | $52,500,000 | $37,800,000 |
| 6/14/2024 | Cora Bora | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | |||||
| 6/14/2024 | Inside Out 2 | Disney / Pixar | PG | $75,000,000 | $94,000,000 | $87,000,000 | $249,000,000 | $338,400,000 | $296,500,000 |
| 6/14/2024 | Latency | Lionsgate | PG-13 | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 6/21/2024 | The Bikeriders | Focus Features | R | $7,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $40,000,000 | $31,000,000 |
| 6/21/2024 | Janet Planet | A24 | PG-13 | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 6/21/2024 | Kinds of Kindness (Limited) | Searchlight Pictures | R | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 6/28/2024 | Blue Lock The Movie: -Episode Nagi- | Sony / Crunchyroll | n/a | n/a | |||||
| 6/28/2024 | Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 | Warner Bros. Pictures | R | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack |
| 6/28/2024 | A Quiet Place: Day One | Paramount Pictures | PG-13 | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack | Available on Substack |
| 6/28/2024 | Janet Planet (Wide Expansion) | A24 | n/a | n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.
This report is available as a free preview on our website. Complete 4-week, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are paywalled exclusively through Shawn Robbins and Box Office Theory’s Substack, which you can subscribe to for just $7 per month. Paid access also includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.