This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s short-range outlook at upcoming box office centerpieces takes a look at how Disney’s oft-discussed (online, anyway) Snow White remake is trending in preliminary models, plus other additions and updates.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Snow White has been in the spotlight over the past couple of years, not the least of which include 2023’s industry strikes delaying a planned 2024 release, star Rachel Zegler’s comments about the film itself, and her opinions on the Middle East. The latter two subjects ignited controversial debates among online circles, resulting in poor social media and trailer trends.
- That being said, it’s worth keeping in mind that Disney’s target audience (adult women and children) for this film are not as vocal about such things in online forums which may not accurately represent the scope of real-world potential for the Snow White remake.
- More directly related to the film is the fact that the IP is nearly a century old and has not had sustained relevance among today’s generation of younger moviegoers, similar to the Dumbo remake in 2019.
- Ultimately, Snow White could commercially benefit from a strong final marketing push and/or critical reception in a spring window that lacks many family-driven tentpoles, with the very notable exception of Minecraft (opening two weeks later on April 4). Word of mouth will be crucial, though, given the volatile circumstances surrounding the film already and what is likely to be minimal interest from young male moviegoers.
- Also joining the public forecast this week are The Alto Knights and Magazine Dreams, both catering to older male audiences but with varying and modest degrees of expected box office impact for now.
- Lionsgate has announced The Unbreakable Boy will open at an estimated 1,300 locations next week, shifting from previous expectations of a true wide release (2,000+). Combined with recent marketing assessments, we’ve significantly lowered forecasts for the title.
5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 2/13/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Studio / Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
Domestic Multiplier PINPOINT Forecast |
2/21/2025 |
The Monkey |
NEON |
$17,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$45,000,000 |
$75,000,000 |
$58,000,000 |
2.90 |
2/21/2025 |
The Unbreakable Boy |
Lionsgate & Kingdom Story Company |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,000,000 (-75%) |
$10,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$13,000,000 (-65%) |
2.60 |
2/28/2025 |
Last Breath |
Focus Features |
$5,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$6,000,000 (+20%) |
$14,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$19,000,000 (+20%) |
3.17 |
2/28/2025 |
Mobile Suit Gundam GQuuuuuuX -Beginning- |
GKIDS |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
2/28/2025 |
My Dead Friend Zoe |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
2/28/2025 |
Riff Raff |
Roadside Attractions |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/7/2025 |
In the Lost Lands |
Vertical Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/7/2025 |
Night of the Zoopocalypse |
Viva Entertainment |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/7/2025 |
Mickey 17 |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$18,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$21,500,000 |
$46,500,000 |
$88,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
3.02 |
3/7/2025 |
Queen of the Ring |
Sumerian |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/7/2025 |
Rule Breakers |
Angel Studios |
$3,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$16,500,000 |
|
3/7/2025 |
The Senior |
Freestyle Releasing / Wayfarer Studios |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/7/2025 |
Seven Veils |
XYZ Films / Variance |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/14/2025 |
Black Bag |
Focus Features |
$3,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
3.20 |
3/14/2025 |
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie |
Ketchup Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$6,700,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$10,800,000 |
3.60 |
3/14/2025 |
The Last Supper |
Pinnacle Peak |
$500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
2.50 |
3/14/2025 |
Novocaine |
Paramount Pictures |
$8,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$48,000,000 |
$32,600,000 |
3.62 |
3/14/2025 |
Opus |
A24 |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
2.27 |
3/15/2025 |
MetOpera: Fidelio |
Fathom Events |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/19/2025 |
Hans Zimmer & Friends: Diamond in the Desert |
Trafalgar Releasing |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/21/2025 |
The Alto Knights |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
2.71 |
3/21/2025 |
Disney’s Snow White |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$52,000,000 |
$71,000,000 |
$56,000,000 |
$130,000,000 |
$209,000,000 |
$155,000,000 |
2.77 |
3/21/2025 |
The Friend |
Bleecker Street |
n/a |
n/a |
|||||
3/21/2025 |
Magazine Dreams |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$12,500,000 |
2.50 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.