This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s update continues to look forward into September and early October with the following updates and additions.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Pre-sale activity in our sample markets for Usher: Rendezvous in Paris have yet to reach previously optimistic models that already factored in less demand than Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce. It’ll need a late-stage surge next week to rebound in forecasts.
- Transformers One continues to perform generally in line with earlier models as it looks toward a strong September start by animation standards.
- Joker: Folie à Deux remains somewhat challenging to project for reasons noted last week. We’re slightly lowering expectations given the sequel’s mixed early reception from critics as it stands at a 60 percent fresh score from 43 Rotten Tomatoes submissions as of this morning. Notably, the first film was also divisive among reviewers, so real-world demand and pre-sales will still have much to say in the coming weeks.
- Among new additions to our public chart this week: Saturday Night could capitalize on early award season buzz and various prestige factors while facing the typical headwinds of what is by definition a “period” film by today’s younger audience standards; Terrifier 3 could capitalize on Halloween season and its franchise’s homegrown success over the last few years; and, My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next looks to continue the trend of anime programming bringing fans out to theaters.
- With the start of football season in the coming days, we continue to monitor how that may or may not impact demand for certain films.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 9/5/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 9/12/2024 | God’s Not Dead: In God We Trust | $4,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $5,500,000 | $8,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $9,000,000 |
| 9/12/2024 | Usher: Rendezvous in Paris | $4,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $6,000,000 | $14,500,000 | $6,750,000 |
| 9/13/2024 | Am I Racist? | $7,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $24,000,000 | $15,000,000 |
| 9/13/2024 | Believer | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | The Killer’s Game | $2,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $2,750,000 | $4,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $5,500,000 |
| 9/13/2024 | DAN DA DAN: First Encounter | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | Meanwhile on Earth | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | Speak No Evil | $13,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $36,700,000 | $58,500,000 | $45,600,000 |
| 9/20/2024 | A Different Man (Limited) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/20/2024 | Lee (Limited) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/20/2024 | Never Let Go | $5,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $27,000,000 | $22,000,000 |
| 9/20/2024 | The Substance | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/20/2024 | Transformers One | $37,000,000 | $45,000,000 | $39,000,000 | $93,000,000 | $135,000,000 | $120,000,000 |
| 9/20/2024 | Wolfs (Limited) | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/21/2024 | Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (9/21 and 9/25) | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/27/2024 | Azrael | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/27/2024 | Bagman | $2,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $2,750,000 | $4,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $5,500,000 |
| 9/27/2024 | Lee (Wide) | $2,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $3,500,000 | $6,000,000 | $24,000,000 | $12,000,000 |
| 9/27/2024 | Megalopolis | $8,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $9,500,000 | $18,000,000 | $32,000,000 | $22,000,000 |
| 9/27/2024 | The Wild Robot | $18,000,000 | $27,000,000 | $21,000,000 | $73,000,000 | $122,000,000 | $94,000,000 |
| 10/3/2024 | House of Spoils | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/4/2024 | Joker: Folie à Deux | $115,000,000 | $140,000,000 | $135,000,000 | $265,000,000 | $366,000,000 | $295,000,000 |
| 10/4/2024 | Monster Summer | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/4/2024 | White Bird: A Wonder Story | $5,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $17,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Chosen Family | n/a | |||||
| 10/11/2024 | The Man in the White Van | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/11/2024 | My Hero Academia the Movie: You’re Next | $6,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $14,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Piece By Piece | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 10/11/2024 | Rumours | $1,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $6,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Saturday Night | $7,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $45,000,000 | $31,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | Terrifier 3 | $5,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $27,000,000 | $20,000,000 |
| 10/11/2024 | We Live In Time (Limited) | n/a | n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.