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This week’s report takes a brief look at updates on upcoming late July and early August films, with first outlooks for August 23’s The Crow reboot and Sony / AFFIRM’s The Forge.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Deadpool & Wolverine trends continue to mirror those of Thor: Love and Thunder when it opened at the same spot on the calendar two Julys ago. For an R-rated film in the post-Endgame era of Marvel, that’s a strong signal that the star-driven crossover action-comedy remains poised to potentially deliver the best R-rated debut in history next weekend. At present, Thursday previews are pacing for a likely $30 million-plus result.
- It Ends With Us is performing above expectations in early pre-sales across our sample markets, indicating more sleeper potential for the adaptation than early models initially expected.
- Similarly, Alien: Romulus is attracting healthy fan interest from genre fans and a marketing campaign striking the sci-fi horror notes. Current trends indicate it could exceed Furiosa‘s preview results by at least 15 percent.
- The Crow reboot from Lionsgate hasn’t yet begun pre-sales, though early marketing and the competition around it indicate it’ll likely be niche-driven from the audience of the classic 1990s franchise. Star Bill Skarsgård, famous for his Pennywise portrayal in the recent It films, is a strength for initial fan interest.
- The Forge will make another play for faith-based audiences as the film hails from the filmmakers behind Overcomer, War Room, Fireproof, and others. Grassroots marketing will be key to watch in the weeks ahead as Sony and AFFIRM have had a solid track record bringing out that target audience in late summer.
This report is also published in our newsletter where short-term, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available for as little as $6.25 per month. Your paid subscription greatly supports Box Office Theory’s research and includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 7/19/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; scroll on mobile to see full chart)
as of 7/19/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; scroll on mobile to see full chart)
| Release Date | Title | Studio | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 7/26/2024 | Deadpool & Wolverine | Disney / Marvel Studios | $160,000,000 | $205,000,000 | $165,000,000 (-8%) | $352,400,000 | $493,000,000 | $405,000,000 (-6%) |
| 7/26/2024 | Didi (Wide) | Focus Features | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 7/26/2024 | Fabulous Four | Bleecker Street | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/2/2024 | The Firing Squad | Epoch Studios | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/2/2024 | Harold and the Purple Crayon | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $13,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $45,000,000 | $67,000,000 | $51,200,000 |
| 8/2/2024 | My Old Ass (Limited) | Amazon / MGM | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/2/2024 | Trap | Warner Bros. Pictures | $17,000,000 | $26,000,000 | $24,000,000 | $42,000,000 | $69,000,000 | $68,000,000 |
| 8/9/2024 | Borderlands | Lionsgate | $15,000,000 | $24,100,000 | $16,000,000 (-18%) | $31,000,000 | $62,800,000 | $37,400,000 (-18%) |
| 8/9/2024 | Cuckoo | Neon | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/9/2024 | Flynt Strong | MGM | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/9/2024 | Colleen Hoover’s It Ends With Us | Sony Pictures | $12,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $15,000,000 (+67%) | $32,000,000 | $55,000,000 | $49,500,000 (+67%) |
| 8/16/2024 | Alien: Romulus | Disney / 20th Century Studios | $34,000,000 | $43,000,000 | $39,000,000 (+15%) | $68,000,000 | $93,000,000 | $87,200,000 (+15%) |
| 8/16/2024 | Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure | Falling Forward Films | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/16/2024 | Skincare | IFC Films | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/23/2024 | Blink Twice | Amazon / MGM | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/23/2024 | The Crow | Lionsgate | $7,500,000 | $11,000,000 | $9,100,000 | $15,800,000 | $28,600,000 | $22,000,000 |
| 8/23/2024 | The Forge | Sony / AFFIRM Films | $7,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $8,500,000 | $20,000,000 | $55,300,000 | $34,000,000 |
| 8/23/2024 | Slingshot | Bleecker Street | n/a | n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.