Tracking & Forecasts

5-Week Tracking & Forecasts: KRAVEN THE HUNTER, LORD OF THE RINGS: THE WAR OF THE ROHIRRIM, and a Big MOANA 2 Update

Photo Credits: Ben Davis & Sony ("Kraven the Hunter"); Warner Bros. ("Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim")

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

A tidal wave of blockbusters over Thanksgiving remains the highlight of current tracking updates, but this week also sees the addition of five-week outlooks on two key IP releases set for mid-December.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

  • Looking outward to December, two fan-driven properties will clash on the weekend of the 13th as Kraven the Hunter and The Lord of the Rings: The War for the Rohirrim open.
  • The former hopes to corral Marvel fans as another in the line of Sony’s spin-offs from the Spider-Man brand. Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Russell Crowe anchor the film which hopes to leverage an R-rating to attract older male audiences and comic book fans over the holidays. Unfortunately, selective audience goodwill and the performance of films like Madame WebMorbius, and many other comic book adaptations over the last two years give pause against what used to be minor breakout expectations for Kraven before several release delays.
  • As for Rohirrim, the anime approach with this prequel is likely to hinder what is usually a broader audience appeal for the Lord of the Rings franchise. Still, the medium has proven strong even with lesser known titles in the domestic market, so Rings could attract some attention here as a counter-player perhaps not dissimilar to how Godzilla Minus One aided the market late last year.
  • The trio of Gladiator IIWicked, and Moana 2 continue to look like a historically potent combination ahead of their pre- and mid-Thanksgiving week openings. At this point, “Wickiator” or “Glicked” is increasingly looking like “Wickiatorana” or “Glickedana”.
  • Potential crossover demographic appeal for the latter two films is throwing a major wrench into models and projections for determining the ceiling on either one. Wicked continues to far out-pace films like Beetlejuice BeetlejuiceThe Little Mermaid, and even Barbie at the same point before release. The heavy caveat there is that Barbie was a benefactor of late-stage “Barbenheimer” buzz which drove massive eleventh hour sales and walk-up business that are not yet observable in current models for Wicked.
  • As for Moana 2, Disney’s animated sequel continues to perform above expected long range modeling with interest remaining strong across kids and parents. Pre-sale weighting is expectedly favored toward its Tuesday previews and the Wednesday-through-Friday portion of the long Thanksgiving frame. Ultimately, there are few if any one-to-one comps here in the post-pandemic era, but excitement among families is clearly robust as this heads toward Thanksgiving records that may be shattered by even bigger margins than we once expected.

5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 11/7/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)

Release Date
Title
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening
3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast
5-Day PINPOINT Opening Weekend Forecast
Domestic Total LOW-END
Domestic Total HIGH-END
Domestic Total TARGET Forecast
11/14/2024
Shawn Mendes: For Friends and Family Only
n/a
n/a
11/15/2024
Red One
$18,000,000
$27,000,000
$24,000,000 (-4%)
$68,000,000
$113,000,000
$90,300,000 (-4%)
11/22/2024
Armor
n/a
n/a
11/22/2024
Bonhoeffer
$3,000,000
$6,000,000
$4,000,000
$9,000,000
$20,000,000
$12,000,000
11/22/2024
Bread & Roses
n/a
n/a
11/22/2024
Gladiator II
$58,000,000
$72,000,000
$66,000,000
$166,000,000
$249,000,000
$240,000,000
11/22/2024
Wicked
$101,000,000
$150,000,000
$133,000,000
$253,000,000
$480,000,000
$365,000,000
11/27/2024
September 5 (Limited)
n/a
n/a
11/27/2024
Moana 2
$75,000,000
$93,000,000
$86,000,000 (+23%)
$138,000,000
$305,000,000
$384,000,000
$380,000,000 (+23%)
11/27/2024
Queer
n/a
n/a
12/5/2024
Pushpa 2: The Rule
n/a
n/a
12/5/2024
King + Country’s A Drummer Boy Christmas (Limited Engagement 12/5 – 12/9/24)
n/a
n/a
12/6/2024
Get Away
n/a
n/a
12/6/2024
Interstellar (10th Anniversary Re-Issue)
n/a
n/a
12/6/2024
Hard Truths (Limited)
n/a
n/a
12/6/2024
Nightbitch
n/a
n/a
12/6/2024
The Return
n/a
n/a
12/6/2024
Solo Leveling -ReAwakening-
$4,000,000
$7,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,750,000
$11,500,000
$8,250,000
12/6/2024
Werewolves
n/a
n/a
12/6/2024
Y2K
n/a
n/a
12/13/2024
Kraven the Hunter
$16,000,000
$24,000,000
$20,000,000
$41,500,000
$72,000,000
$52,200,000
12/13/2024
Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
$15,000,000
$24,000,000
$17,500,000
$44,000,000
$84,500,000
$49,500,000
12/13/2024
Nickel Boys (NYC Only)
n/a
n/a
12/13/2024
September 5 (Expansion)
n/a
n/a

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.