5-Week Tracking & Forecasts: KRAVEN THE HUNTER, LORD OF THE RINGS: THE WAR OF THE ROHIRRIM, and a Big MOANA 2 Update

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

A tidal wave of blockbusters over Thanksgiving remains the highlight of current tracking updates, but this week also sees the addition of five-week outlooks on two key IP releases set for mid-December.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Looking outward to December, two fan-driven properties will clash on the weekend of the 13th as Kraven the Hunter and The Lord of the Rings: The War for the Rohirrim open.
• The former hopes to corral Marvel fans as another in the line of Sony’s spin-offs from the Spider-Man brand. Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Russell Crowe anchor the film which hopes to leverage an R-rating to attract older male audiences and comic book fans over the holidays. Unfortunately, selective audience goodwill and the performance of films like Madame Web, Morbius, and many other comic book adaptations over the last two years give pause against what used to be minor breakout expectations for Kraven before several release delays.
• As for Rohirrim, the anime approach with this prequel is likely to hinder what is usually a broader audience appeal for the Lord of the Rings franchise. Still, the medium has proven strong even with lesser known titles in the domestic market, so Rings could attract some attention here as a counter-player perhaps not dissimilar to how Godzilla Minus One aided the market late last year.
• The trio of Gladiator II, Wicked, and Moana 2 continue to look like a historically potent combination ahead of their pre- and mid-Thanksgiving week openings. At this point, “Wickiator” or “Glicked” is increasingly looking like “Wickiatorana” or “Glickedana”.
• Potential crossover demographic appeal for the latter two films is throwing a major wrench into models and projections for determining the ceiling on either one. Wicked continues to far out-pace films like Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Little Mermaid, and even Barbie at the same point before release. The heavy caveat there is that Barbie was a benefactor of late-stage “Barbenheimer” buzz which drove massive eleventh hour sales and walk-up business that are not yet observable in current models for Wicked.
• As for Moana 2, Disney’s animated sequel continues to perform above expected long range modeling with interest remaining strong across kids and parents. Pre-sale weighting is expectedly favored toward its Tuesday previews and the Wednesday-through-Friday portion of the long Thanksgiving frame. Ultimately, there are few if any one-to-one comps here in the post-pandemic era, but excitement among families is clearly robust as this heads toward Thanksgiving records that may be shattered by even bigger margins than we once expected.

5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 11/7/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)