This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s extended box office outlook takes an early peak at another key Q4 release: Disney’s Moana 2, set to release over Thanksgiving weekend.
Additional updates and current tracking ranges for other upcoming films such as Gladiator II, Wicked, and others are in the chart below.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- It’s been a long road to recovery after back-to-back under-performers at the Thanksgiving box office for Disney with Strange World and Wish in 2022 and 2023 respectively. The tide hopes to turn in what’s already been a very successful 2024 for the studio thanks to Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine. Their next release, Moana 2, has shown encouraging social media and trailer signals in recent months thanks to the goodwill and streaming popularity of the 2016 film, plus returning star voice power in Dwayne Johnson.
- However, Moana 2 was originally intended as a streaming series for Disney+ and only as recently as eight months ago was announced to be pivoting as a theatrical feature film. While this is probably good news for exhibition, cinema fans, and the studio (most likely), it has sparked some skepticism about how the final product will be received by audiences and fans of the original. Word of mouth and/or initial interest will be key to watch.
- Underscoring other hesitancy in early social chatter is the absence of Lin-Manuel Miranda’s participation, who composed the popular soundtrack to the original film,. The crossover female audience competition with Wicked, which opens one week earlier and is already showing early signs of a breakout, provides another possible challenge. Red One‘s appeal to parents with young kids could also be a minor factor through November and December, although it will be in its third week of play by Moana 2‘s opening.
- Premium screen competition will be tight after the initial contractual windows as Paramount and Universal are likely to push for the re-allocation of Gladiator II and Wicked, respectively, after Moana 2 claims those higher-priced, high-in-demand screens during its initial opening.
- Still, this is the first major studio animated release since The Wild Robot in September and it only faces direct competition from Mufasa: The Lion King one month later. Appeal to young kids should be conducive to some staying power, which may be notable going into the heart of the holiday season and a new year which claims no major animated release on the early 2025 calendar at this time.
- While we traditionally focus on the three-day weekend (Friday through Sunday) in forecasts, the current Moana 2 models represented in that form below would translate to a range of between $77 million and $98 million, with the pinpoint approximating near $90 million for now.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 10/25/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 11/1/2024 | Here | $3,000,000 | $7,000,000 | $4,500,000 (-55%) | $9,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $15,000,000 (-64%) |
| 11/8/2024 | The Best Christmas Pageant Ever | $8,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $11,500,000 | $27,000,000 | $57,000,000 | $42,500,000 |
| 11/8/2024 | Heretic | $9,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $12,500,000 (+14%) | $24,000,000 | $53,000,000 | $40,000,000 (+43%) |
| 11/8/2024 | OVERLORD: The Sacred Kingdom | $3,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $3,500,000 (-13%) | $4,500,000 | $12,400,000 | $5,900,000 (-13%) |
| 11/15/2024 | Red One | $18,000,000 | $27,000,000 | $25,000,000 (-14%) | $68,000,000 | $113,000,000 | $94,000,000 (-17%) |
| 11/22/2024 | Bonhoeffer | $3,000,000 | $6,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $12,000,000 |
| 11/22/2024 | Gladiator II | $53,000,000 | $75,000,000 | $66,000,000 | $152,000,000 | $249,000,000 | $240,000,000 |
| 11/22/2024 | Wicked | $96,000,000 | $150,000,000 | $135,000,000 | $240,000,000 | $480,000,000 | $365,000,000 |
| 11/27/2024 | Moana 2 | $54,000,000 | $68,000,000 | $62,000,000 | $212,000,000 | $281,000,000 | $260,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.