5-Week Tracking & Forecasts: WICKED, GLADIATOR II, and MOANA 2 Increasingly Poised to Anchor a Robust Thanksgiving Corridor

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

This week’s update takes a brief look at where things stand for key releases hitting theaters over the next month-plus as our five-week window creeps into the post-Thanksgiving lull that will precede a second wave of holiday tentpoles later in December.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Moana 2 began its pre-sales window earlier this week following last week’s debut of five-week tracking. Initial trends show the anticipated Disney sequel is already looking to beat some of our more cautious expectations, though we remain considerate of how word of mouth for the once-planned streaming-turned-movie release will pan out alongside the similarly female-leaning Wicked in the market. Moana 2‘s strongest demographics are among kids and women over 35, representing the strong family factor Disney will again bank on through the holidays. We could yet see models rise again if current trends prove sustainable, but for now, most closely resemble The Little Mermaid‘s pre-release tracking.
• “Glicked” / “Wickiator” weekend remains of growing interest. Gladiator II and Wicked are still strong at their relative pre-release points with Wicked particularly continuing to impress on the back of strong pre-sales and early reviews via the lifted social embargo. How far and wide the audience can expand outside a dedicated fan base remains debatable, but models are still bullish for the time being in a theatrical market that will be overdue for a big hit in mid-November alongside the male-leaning Gladiator sequel. Wicked remains a candidate to attract a big audience (Broadway and musical theater fans) that don’t typically show up in traditional box office tracking.
• Nearer to release, Heretic continues to trend well across the usual channels with buzz strong among horror cinephiles and A24 fans. It looks likely to challenge for the top two or three spots at the box office when it debuts next week against The Best Christmas Pageant Ever.
• As for the first frame of December, we’re currently withholding public forecasts for A24’s Y2K and Paramount’s re-release of Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar until more distribution details are confirmed.

5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 10/31/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.