This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Another quick update to end the week. Key additions, notes and updated projections below. Several of the “n/a” films will soon be added to forecasts.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Joining our short-range outlook this week is Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s The Wild Robot, slated to open September 27. Early industry buzz is positive, indicating potential for a crowd-pleasing family film with minimal post-release competition after its release in October and early November. This could be a potential sleeper hit to watch for, though the proximity of Transformers One (opening one week before) is a notable factor to watch for in terms of appeal to young male audiences.
- Beetlejuice Beetlejuice continues to excel in pre-release trends across the spectrum of social media buzz, marketing imprint, and pre-sale activity.
- Conversely, next week’s AfrAId will increasingly need walk-up business to help it stand out on Labor Day weekend.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 8/23/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart)
| Release Date | Title | Studio | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 8/29/2024 | Shaun of the Dead (2024 Re-Issue in Dolby Cinema) | Focus Features | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 8/30/2024 | 1992 | Lionsgate | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 8/30/2024 | AfrAId | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $5,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $10,400,000 | $20,000,000 | $14,600,000 |
| 8/30/2024 | City of Dreams | Roadside Attractions | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/30/2024 | Reagan | ShowBiz Direct | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 8/30/2024 | Slingshot | Bleecker Street | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/6/2024 | Beetlejuice Beetlejuice | Warner Bros. Pictures | $81,000,000 | $94,000,000 | $88,000,000 | $206,000,000 | $273,000,000 | $234,300,000 |
| 9/6/2024 | El Candidato Honesto | Cinematica Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/6/2024 | The Front Room | A24 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/6/2024 | I’ll Be Right There | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/12/2024 | God’s Not Dead: In God We Trust | Fathom Events | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/12/2024 | Usher: Rendezvous in Paris | AMC Theatres / Trafalgar Releasing | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/13/2024 | Am I Racist? | SDG Releasing | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | Believer | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | The Killer’s Game | Lionsgate | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/13/2024 | DAN DA DAN: First Encounter | GKIDS | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | Meanwhile on Earth | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | Speak No Evil | Universal Pictures / Blumhouse | $15,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $16,500,000 | $42,400,000 | $65,000,000 | $50,200,000 |
| 9/20/2024 | A Different Man (Limited) | A24 | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/20/2024 | Lee (Limited) | Roadside Attractions | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/20/2024 | Never Let Go | Lionsgate | $5,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $27,000,000 | $22,000,000 |
| 9/20/2024 | The Substance | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/20/2024 | Transformers One | Paramount Pictures | $37,000,000 | $45,000,000 | $37,000,000 | $93,000,000 | $135,000,000 | $120,000,000 |
| 9/20/2024 | Wolfs (Limited) | Sony Pictures / Apple Original Films | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/27/2024 | Azrael | Shudder & IFC Films | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/27/2024 | Bagman | Lionsgate | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/27/2024 | Lee (Wide) | Roadside Attractions | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/27/2024 | Megalopolis | Lionsgate | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/27/2024 | The Wild Robot | Universal / DreamWorks Animation | $16,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $17,500,000 | $65,000,000 | $113,000,000 | $83,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.