This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s update continues our look ahead into a promising September slate with five-week projections for Paramount’s latest Transformers project, Lionsgate’s Never Let Go, and updated forecasts for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and other upcoming films.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Transformers One is positioned as one of the marquee animated releases of the fall season with a varied male fan base of all ages courted as the primary audience. Early buzz is healthy and it could serve as a strong counter-programmer to live action tentpoles such as Beetlejuice Beetlejuice‘s stretch weekends and October’s adult-aimed Joker sequel. The school season and animated approach may limit casual audience appeal relative to past Transformers films, but the IP remains strong.
- Halle Berry stars in the thriller Never Let Go and could draw a modest female-driven audience alongside director Alexandre Aja’s (Crawl) own following. Later marketing may determine how high its ceiling can go as it opens one week after Speak No Evil and two weeks before the Joker sequel.
- Closer to the home front, we’re slightly lowering projections for next week’s The Crow and The Forge, as well as August 30’s AfrAId, as late summer moviegoing may briefly slow down between major releases.
- Conversely, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice continues to match and exceed our bullish model projections from prior weeks, now showing signals to climb even higher. Pre-sales are notably ahead of the pace of Twisters, Five Nights at Freddy’s, and other comparable titles in our market sampling. The remaining caution is that a pre-existing fan base could skew upfront demand to some extent, but its potential as a broadly appealing, family-friendly holiday sequel also remains highly weighted in forecasts.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 8/15/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; view in landscape mode on mobile to see full chart)
| Release Date | Title | Studio | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) TARGET Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total TARGET Forecast |
| 8/23/2024 | Blink Twice | Amazon / MGM | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 8/23/2024 | The Crow | Lionsgate | $6,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $12,600,000 | $26,000,000 | $15,700,000 |
| 8/23/2024 | The Forge | Sony / AFFIRM Films | $5,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $15,700,000 | $34,000,000 | $23,000,000 |
| 8/29/2024 | Shaun of the Dead (2024 Re-Issue in Dolby Cinema) | Focus Features | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 8/30/2024 | 1992 | Lionsgate | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 8/30/2024 | AfrAId | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $7,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $7,500,000 | $14,500,000 | $31,700,000 | $16,900,000 |
| 8/30/2024 | City of Dreams | Roadside Attractions | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 8/30/2024 | Reagan | ShowBiz Direct | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 8/30/2024 | Slingshot | Bleecker Street | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/6/2024 | Beetlejuice Beetlejuice | Warner Bros. Pictures | $79,000,000 | $89,000,000 | $84,000,000 | $201,000,000 | $258,800,000 | $223,600,000 |
| 9/6/2024 | El Candidato Honesto | Cinematica Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/6/2024 | The Front Room | A24 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/6/2024 | I’ll Be Right There | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/12/2024 | God’s Not Dead: In God We Trust | Fathom Events | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/12/2024 | Usher: Rendezvous in Paris | AMC Theatres / Trafalgar Releasing | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/13/2024 | Am I Racist? | SDG Releasing | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | Believer | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | The Killer’s Game | Lionsgate | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/13/2024 | DAN DA DAN: First Encounter | GKIDS | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | Meanwhile on Earth | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/13/2024 | Speak No Evil | Universal Pictures / Blumhouse | $15,000,000 | $20,000,000 | $16,500,000 | $42,400,000 | $65,000,000 | $50,200,000 |
| 9/20/2024 | Bagman | Lionsgate | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 9/20/2024 | A Different Man (Limited) | A24 | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/20/2024 | Lee (Limited) | Roadside Attractions | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/20/2024 | Never Let Go | Lionsgate | $5,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $11,000,000 | $27,000,000 | $22,000,000 |
| 9/20/2024 | The Substance | Brainstorm Media | n/a | n/a | ||||
| 9/20/2024 | Transformers One | Paramount Pictures | $37,000,000 | $45,000,000 | $37,000,000 | $93,000,000 | $135,000,000 | $120,000,000 |
| 9/20/2024 | Wolfs (Limited) | Sony Pictures / Apple Original Films | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.