The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Due to the holidays over the next two weeks, the cadence of these updates will be a little off-schedule. We’ll aim to publish an update early next week before Christmas, while likely taking off New Year’s week and resuming normal cadence in early January.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- As always, the holidays are throwing several wrenches into the box office forecasting machine. With a particularly crowded field of new releases (7 going wide within a week of each other), we expect some volatility and inevitable under- and/or over-performers.
- Coastal cities are tracking very well for Marty Supreme, but the unknown factor will be how the film plays everywhere else. The secret sauce here continues to be Timothée Chalamet, whose appeal among young audiences, especially women, may be what helps send it over the edge compared to most period-set sporting dramas.
- Anaconda continues to be one of the more challenging models as it will rely on walk-up business as a PG-13-rated comedy with two star leads. Song Sung Blue will also fall back on its star power, though as a crowd-pleasing, female-driven musical, it could stand out.
- Looking to January, our first forecasts for Sam Raimi’s Send Help and the Jason Statham-led Shelter are now available to subscribers. We’ll also soon be including a first look at Iron Lung from the star YouTube streamer Markiplier, slated to open January 30.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 12/18/25
(All ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.)
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
5-Day (WTFSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
12/25/2025 |
Anaconda (2025) |
Sony Pictures |
$11,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$11,500,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$69,000,000 |
$48,000,000 |
|
12/25/2025 |
Marty Supreme (Expansion) |
A24 |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$36,000,000 |
$57,000,000 |
$48,000,000 |
|
12/25/2025 |
Song Sung Blue |
Focus Features |
$7,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$38,000,000 |
|
1/9/2026 |
Greenland 2: Migration |
Lionsgate |
$11,000,000 |
$16,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$26,500,000 |
$43,000,000 |
$32,000,000 |
|
1/9/2026 |
I Was a Stranger (Expansion) |
Angel Studios |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
|
1/9/2026 |
Primate |
Paramount Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$7,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$16,300,000 |
|
1/9/2026 |
Soulm8te |
Universal Pictures |
$5,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$27,000,000 |
$14,000,000 |
|
1/16/2026 |
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple |
Sony Pictures |
$18,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$22,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
$48,000,000 |
|
1/16/2026 |
Madagascar (20th Anniversary) |
Universal Pictures |
$500,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$500,000 |
$750,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$750,000 |
|
1/16/2026 |
All You Need Is Kill |
GKIDS |
|||||||
1/23/2026 |
Clika |
Sony Pictures |
|||||||
1/23/2026 |
Mercy |
Amazon MGM Studios |
|||||||
1/30/2026 |
Send Help |
Disney |
|||||||
1/30/2026 |
Shelter |
Black Bear |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.