6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: THE CONJURING: LAST RITES Early Outlooks, Plus Late Summer Slate Updates

The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

Summer’s winding down means fall’s early slate is coming into view. We’ll dive more into some broader industry trends and expectations for the season in the coming weeks, but for now, some brief takeaways and preliminary analysis:

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• The Conjuring: Last Rites aims to wrap up the Ed and Lorraine Warren arc of horror films that began 12 years ago and spawned a major horror franchise that’s accumulated $824.4 million in domestic box office since.
  • Early trailer imprints and social media trends indicate the “finale factor” in marketing is working so far with models potentially improving over the previous Conjuring film’s mid-pandemic, day-and-date streaming release when it opened to $24.1 million at the box office. As always, these projections are subject to buzz and reviews in the weeks ahead.
• The Bad Guys 2 continues to pace well ahead of next week’s opening as one of the few high-profile animated releases targeting kids this summer. Pre-sales are currently ahead of where Elio and DC League of Super-Pets were at the same point before release, per exhibitor samples.
• The Naked Gun remains volatile as recent comedy comps are few and far between, but early social buzz from critics is very positive following industry screenings.
• Freakier Friday and Weapons are also shaping up to be a strong duo on August 8, with social media reactions for both on the encouraging end. Given how multiple films have over-tracked this summer, though, we remain cautious to some extent and will update again next week.

5-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 7/24/25

(NOTE: Range and pinpoint forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.