The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s spotlight updates and current tracking ranges:
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- As a slow October ends, the industry is banking on a strong holiday slate to lift the box office spirits.
- Wicked: For Good continues to trend incredibly well and far ahead of its predecessor’s pacing at the same point before release. We still expect more front-loading in the overall metrics given how leggy the first film was as it found a larger audience over time, but it’s hard to deny the level pre-sales are performing at so far when it comes to For Good. While far from a guarantee yet, it wouldn’t be surprising if For Good lands the top domestic opening and/or the top domestic total gross of 2025 releases (granted, Avatar: Fire and Ash and/or Zootopia 2 may have to say something about that).
- Zootopia 2 pre-sales also began this past week and expectedly began at the slower end of the spectrum. The Disney sequel was never assumed to be as strong out of the gate as Moana 2 was last year due to the musical-driven element of the latter’s fan base. Rather, Zootopia 2‘s early footprints are more indicative of a slow-burn lead-up to release, ala Inside Out 2 — presuming ultimately reviews and reception are strong, of course. It also stands to reason Wicked: For Good‘s high demand is skewing way-in-advance plans for Thanksgiving moviegoing.
- Closer to the home front, Predator: Badlands remains volatile. Pre-sales are showing mixed signals as a majority of models indicate the fan-driven franchise may stall out over the next week. That said, we’re leaning outside the norm for a few more days and giving it the benefit of the doubt that a release week level of momentum similar to Ballerina could still help it land over $20 million next weekend. Pacing similar to Tron: Ares, Alien: Romulus, or Furiosa, on the other hand, could lead to a result below that threshold.
- Similarly, The Running Man is living up to forecasts of a marathon rather than a sprint as optimistic tracking remains built around a strong casual audience appeal thanks to Glen Powell, on top of Edgar Wright’s directorial fan following, and a holiday runway.
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 10/30/25
Release Date |
Title |
Distributor |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
5-Day (WTFSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
11/7/2025 |
Christy |
Black Bear |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$10,000,000 |
|
11/7/2025 |
Predator: Badlands |
Disney |
$20,000,000 |
$29,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
$46,000,000 |
$70,000,000 |
$56,000,000 |
|
11/7/2025 |
Sarah’s Oil |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,000,000 |
$2,750,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
|
11/14/2025 |
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t |
Lionsgate |
$12,000,000 |
$17,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$34,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
|
11/14/2025 |
Keeper |
NEON |
$6,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$29,000,000 |
$19,000,000 |
|
11/14/2025 |
The Running Man (2025) |
Paramount Pictures |
$19,000,000 |
$28,000,000 |
$23,000,000 |
$62,000,000 |
$113,000,000 |
$104,000,000 |
|
11/21/2025 |
Rental Family |
Disney |
$2,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
|
11/21/2025 |
SISU: ROAD TO REVENGE |
Sony Pictures |
$3,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
|
11/21/2025 |
Wicked: For Good |
Universal Pictures |
$160,000,000 |
$190,000,000 |
$176,000,000 |
$463,000,000 |
$519,000,000 |
$506,000,000 |
|
11/26/2025 |
Eternity |
A24 |
$3,500,000 |
$8,500,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$9,600,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$30,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
11/26/2025 |
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery |
Netflix |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$11,000,000 |
$15,500,000 |
$14,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
$15,500,000 |
11/26/2025 |
Zootopia 2 |
Disney |
$115,000,000 |
$135,000,000 |
$125,000,000 |
$188,000,000 |
$394,000,000 |
$486,000,000 |
$465,000,000 |
11/28/2025 |
The Thing With Feathers |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
$2,000,000 |
||||||
12/5/2025 |
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 |
Universal Pictures |
$50,000,000 |
||||||
12/5/2025 |
JUJUTSU KAISEN: Execution |
GKIDS |
$1,500,000 |
||||||
12/12/2025 |
Ella McCay |
Disney |
$3,000,000 |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.