5-Week Tracking & Forecasts: DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE, IT ENDS WITH US Updates, Plus Early Outlooks for THE CROW Reboot and THE FORGE

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This week’s report takes a brief look at updates on upcoming late July and early August films, with first outlooks for August 23’s The Crow reboot and Sony / AFFIRM’s The Forge.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Deadpool & Wolverine trends continue to mirror those of Thor: Love and Thunder when it opened at the same spot on the calendar two Julys ago. For an R-rated film in the post-Endgame era of Marvel, that’s a strong signal that the star-driven crossover action-comedy remains poised to potentially deliver the best R-rated debut in history next weekend. At present, Thursday previews are pacing for a likely $30 million-plus result.
• It Ends With Us is performing above expectations in early pre-sales across our sample markets, indicating more sleeper potential for the adaptation than early models initially expected.
• Similarly, Alien: Romulus is attracting healthy fan interest from genre fans and a marketing campaign striking the sci-fi horror notes. Current trends indicate it could exceed Furiosa‘s preview results by at least 15 percent.
• The Crow reboot from Lionsgate hasn’t yet begun pre-sales, though early marketing and the competition around it indicate it’ll likely be niche-driven from the audience of the classic 1990s franchise. Star Bill Skarsgård, famous for his Pennywise portrayal in the recent It films, is a strength for initial fan interest.
• The Forge will make another play for faith-based audiences as the film hails from the filmmakers behind Overcomer, War Room, Fireproof, and others. Grassroots marketing will be key to watch in the weeks ahead as Sony and AFFIRM have had a solid track record bringing out that target audience in late summer.

This report is also published in our newsletter where short-term, film-by-film box office tracking with full ranges, pinpoint forecasts, and trackable changes are available for as little as $6.25 per month. Your paid subscription greatly supports Box Office Theory’s research and includes ad-free viewing and priority inbox delivery.