This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s forecast analysis will be relatively simply as November’s early market remains on the slower side of things before a major turnaround expected to begin mid-month. Veteran’s Day on Monday could also slightly aid end-of-weekend attendance.
Heretic
November 8, 2024
A24
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $8 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $10 – 15 million
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever
November 8, 2024
Lionsgate
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $6 – 8 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $7 – 11 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- After two weeks atop the box office, Venom: The Last Dance appears to be the slight favorite for another repeat #1 showing on the heels of minimal direct competition and largely positive word of mouth among audiences. It will, however, lose some PLF footprint to one of this weekend’s key releases but will maintain a strong IMAX showing.
- That release is A24’s Heretic, which is drawing anticipation from the studio’s own legion of in-house fans as well as horror genre buffs looking for the next breakout indie hit following the likes of Longlegs, Terrifier 3, and Late Night with the Devil, among others, earlier this year. Heretic is drawing strong praise from critics a 94 percent fresh Rotten Tomatoes across 119 reviews. Marketing has amplified this buzz by highlighting Hugh Grant’s highly touted performance in trailers that have run before several recent horror hits in theaters recently. A minor PLF footprint will aid grosses and word of mouth, if comparable to that of critics, could help the film extend legs beyond what are expected to be strong Thursday previews. Overall, pre-sales from sample exhibition markets have compared favorably to the likes of Talk to Me and Speak No Evil.
- The Best Christmas Pageant Ever is also looking to succeed in its own right as the Lionsgate distribution plays on both family-driven holiday appeal and some faith-based audience integration. Led by Judy Greer and Pete Holmes, it also boasts strong reception with an 88 percent critic score (16 submissions) and 100 percent Popcornmeter on Rotten Tomatoes.
- Meanwhile, Neon will expand Anora into semi-wide release this weekend after strong platform and limited market play, while Sony will open Crunchyroll’s OVERLORD: The Sacred Kingdom in limited release with appeal centered on die-hard anime fans.
Weekend Forecast
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 26 percent below the same weekend in 2023 ($81.4 million) and 40 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($100.5 million).
| Film | Distributor | FSS Weekend Forecast | 3-Day Change from Last Weekend | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 10 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
| Venom: The Last Dance | Sony Pictures / Columbia | $16,700,000 | -36% | $114,700,000 | ~3,900 |
| Heretic | A24 | $12,100,000 | NEW | $12,100,000 | ~3,200 |
| The Best Christmas Pageant Ever | Lionsgate | $8,400,000 | NEW | $8,400,000 | ~3,000 |
| The Wild Robot | Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation | $5,400,000 | -27% | $129,600,000 | ~3,000 |
| Smile 2 | Paramount Pictures | $4,400,000 | -35% | $60,300,000 | ~2,600 |
| Conclave | Focus Features | $4,000,000 | -20% | $21,400,000 | ~1,900 |
| We Live In Time | A24 | $2,800,000 | -19% | $22,500,000 | ~2,700 |
| Anora | Neon | $2,500,000 | 37% | $7,300,000 | ~1,100 |
| Here | Sony Pictures / TriStar | $2,500,000 | -49% | $9,200,000 | ~2,647 |
| Terrifier 3 | Cineverse / Iconic Events | $1,800,000 | -44% | $53,900,000 | ~1,600 |
| OVERLORD: The Sacred Kingdom | Sony / Crunchyroll | $1,500,000 | NEW | $1,500,000 | ~600 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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