This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
With no major releases added to the five-week forecast, plus Thanksgiving landing this week, we’re rolling out a quick and easy update this week focusing the remaining major studio titles slated for release in December.
For inquiries on forward-looking box office projection services, please contact us.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- As pre-sales ramp up for Nosferatu and Sonic the Hedgehog 3, alongside Mufasa: The Lion King, we’ll continue monitoring tracking trends for those and other upcoming holiday releases.
- For now, forecasts versus last week are generally unchanged with the exception of Sonic. Our models now slightly favor that sequel to out-open Mufasa on the weekend of the 20th, but it remains a close battle as Disney and Paramount are both expected to ramp up marketing after the current Thanksgiving onslaught of releases.
5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 11/27/24
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)
Release Date |
Title |
Studio / Distributor |
Release Pattern |
3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening |
3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast |
Domestic Total LOW-END |
Domestic Total HIGH-END |
Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
12/5/2024 |
Pushpa 2: The Rule |
AA Films / AGS Entertainment / Mythri Movie Makers |
Limited |
$5,500,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$6,500,000 |
$17,500,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$21,000,000 |
12/5/2024 |
King + Country’s A Drummer Boy Christmas (Limited Engagement 12/5 – 12/9/24) |
Fathom Events |
Limited |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
12/6/2024 |
Get Away |
IFC Films |
Wide |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
12/6/2024 |
Interstellar (10th Anniversary Re-Issue) |
Paramount Pictures |
IMAX |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
12/6/2024 |
Hard Truths (Limited) |
Bleecker Street |
Limited |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
12/6/2024 |
Nightbitch |
Searchlight Pictures |
Limited |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
12/6/2024 |
The Return |
Bleecker Street |
Wide |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
12/6/2024 |
Solo Leveling -ReAwakening- |
Sony / Crunchyroll |
Wide |
$1,000,000 |
$3,000,000 |
$1,500,000 |
$1,750,000 |
$5,000,000 |
$2,300,000 |
12/6/2024 |
Werewolves |
Briarcliff Entertainment |
Wide |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
12/6/2024 |
Y2K |
A24 |
Wide |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,900,000 |
$10,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
$18,000,000 |
12/13/2024 |
Kraven the Hunter |
Sony / Columbia Pictures |
Wide |
$16,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$41,500,000 |
$72,000,000 |
$52,200,000 |
12/13/2024 |
Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
Wide |
$15,000,000 |
$24,000,000 |
$17,500,000 |
$44,000,000 |
$84,500,000 |
$49,500,000 |
12/13/2024 |
Nickel Boys (NYC Only) |
Amazon / MGM |
Platform |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
12/13/2024 |
September 5 (Exclusive) |
Paramount |
Platform |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
12/20/2024 |
The Brutalist |
A24 |
Limited |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
12/20/2024 |
Homestead |
Angel Studios |
Wide |
$3,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$9,000,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
12/20/2024 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
Walt Disney Pictures |
Wide |
$55,000,000 |
$65,000,000 |
$58,000,000 |
$232,000,000 |
$325,000,000 |
$290,000,000 |
12/20/2024 |
Nickel Boys (LA Expansion) |
Amazon / MGM |
Platform |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
12/20/2024 |
The Room Next Door |
Sony Pictures Classic |
Limited |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
12/20/2024 |
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 |
Paramount Pictures |
Wide |
$59,000,000 |
$68,000,000 |
$64,000,000 |
$166,000,000 |
$201,000,000 |
$186,000,000 |
12/25/2024 |
Babygirl |
A24 |
Wide |
$4,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$5,700,000 |
$20,000,000 |
$49,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
12/25/2024 |
Better Man (Platform) |
Paramount Pictures |
Platform |
n/a |
n/a |
||||
12/25/2024 |
A Complete Unknown |
Searchlight Pictures |
Wide |
$8,000,000 |
$12,000,000 |
$8,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$55,000,000 |
$37,000,000 |
12/25/2024 |
The Fire Inside |
Amazon MGM Studios |
Wide |
$4,000,000 |
$7,500,000 |
$5,500,000 |
$18,000,000 |
$35,000,000 |
$26,000,000 |
12/25/2024 |
Nosferatu |
Focus Features |
Wide |
$10,000,000 |
$15,000,000 |
$13,000,000 |
$40,000,000 |
$60,000,000 |
$59,000,000 |
12/27/2024 |
2073 |
Neon |
Limited |
n/a |
n/a |
All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.