This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
It’s another calm-before-the-storm setup for the box office as December’s second frame looks light on new release business before the Christmas corridor begins in earnest next week.
Kraven the Hunter
December 13, 2024
Sony Pictures / Columbia
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: $15 million
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $12 – 17 million
Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
December 13, 2024
Warner Bros. Pictures
Traditional Industry Tracking & Expectations: n/a
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $4 – 8 million
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Kraven the Hunter has fallen shy of recent forecast trajectories with pre-sales and early critic reception indicating that an opening weekend of $20 million-plus looks increasingly difficult. Sony reports the film was budgeted as $90 million originally, before ballooning to $110 million due to last year’s industry strikes. They co-financed the film at a 50 percent share with TSG. With waning demand for non-event films in the comic book adaptation space, plus an R rating to limit this film’s particular aim to older fans of the niche Spider-Man rogues gallery character, Kraven will need strong walk-up business to beat current expectations.
- Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim similarly isn’t connecting beyond the die-hard IP and anime fan base. Tracking has moved into the territory of fellow anime films such as recent Demon Slayer releases and the Howl’s Moving Castle re-issue earlier this fall.
- As holdovers go, Moana 2 has proven to be as front-loaded as concerns indicated it might be — but that’s of little concern right now given how far above expectations it opened last month. Wicked, conversely, continues to display strong chase week power.
- The IMAX exclusive re-issue of Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar has been extended another week following an over-performing $4.6 million showing last frame. Sellouts and near-capacity showings continue to reflect the popularity of the film among Nolan and event cinema fans as the movie celebrates its 10th anniversary. Combined with all prior box office runs, the film should cross the $200 million domestic threshold by the end of this re-release run.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 39 percent above the same weekend in 2023 ($69 million) and 13 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($110.4 million).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 15 |
Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) |
Moana 2 |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$32,000,000 |
-38% |
$343,200,000 |
~4,100 |
Wicked |
Universal Pictures |
$23,800,000 |
-35% |
$359,300,000 |
~3,700 |
Kraven the Hunter |
Sony / Columbia Pictires |
$15,600,000 |
NEW |
$15,600,000 |
~3,200 |
Gladiator II |
Paramount Pictures |
$7,400,000 |
-41% |
$145,200,000 |
~3,200 |
Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim |
Warner Bros. Pictures |
$5,200,000 |
NEW |
$5,200,000 |
~2,500 |
Red One |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$4,600,000 |
-34% |
$92,700,000 |
~2,700 |
Interstellar (IMAX Re-Issue) |
Paramount Pictures |
$3,400,000 |
-26% |
$200,200,000 |
~165 |
Pushpa 2: The Rule |
AA Films / AGS Entertainment / Mythri Movie Makers |
$1,500,000 |
-69% |
$12,800,000 |
~1,245 |
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever |
Lionsgate |
$1,100,000 |
-27% |
$36,300,000 |
~1,400 |
Y2K |
A24 |
$1,000,000 |
-52% |
$3,800,000 |
~2,108 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.