This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Holiday box office action is in full swing as moviegoers of all backgrounds have a variety of big screen content to choose from.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Following last week’s debuts, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King will continue to lead the market in most aspects thanks to notable family appeal and vacation time for many audiences.
- Among openers, Nosferatu offers up the rare holiday horror breakout candidate. Focus Features has levied a strong marketing campaign for filmmaker Robert Eggers’ latest commercial-indie crossover genre pic after building a fan base across films such as The Witch, The Lighthouse, and The Northman. Social media buzz for Bill Skarsgård’s mysterious unveiling as Count Orlok and Lily Rose-Depp’s performance have been driving strong interest among target audiences. An opening day on Christmas itself (Wednesday) could net north of $10 million domestically, though capacity on limited PLF screenings skews modeling. Reviews are very encouraging with an 89 percent score across 144 Rotten Tomatoes critic submissions as of this writing.
- Searchlight Pictures’ A Complete Unknown is also showing strength anchored by Timothée Chalamet’s varied audience drawing power and potential to capture middle America audiences, many of which will be coming from the more seasoned generation of moviegoers who grew up with Bob Dylan’s music. Reviews are largely positive with a 76 percent score from 127 RT submissions as this counter-programmer adds to a diverse holiday slate.
- Elsewhere, Babygirl looks to lean on its A24 distributor following as well as the buzzy ad campaign that highlighted Nicole Kidman’s lead performance. Appeal is likely to be strongest among women over 35. 80 percent of RT critics have awarded a fresh review out of 96 total.
- Rounding out the major openers, Amazon MGM’s The Fire Inside will cater to those seeking an inspirational drama for the holiday season, perhaps not unlike last year’s The Boys in the Boat. The pic has a 90 percent fresh score from 40 RT critics.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 46 percent above the same weekend in 2023 ($100.5 million) and 21 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($186.8 million).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
5-Day (Wed-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 29 |
Fri Location Count Projection (as of Mon) |
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 |
Paramount Pictures |
$39,900,000 |
-34% |
$72,600,000 |
$153,300,000 |
~3,761 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$29,400,000 |
-17% |
$52,700,000 |
$102,400,000 |
~4,100 |
Wicked |
Universal Pictures |
$18,500,000 |
31% |
$28,700,000 |
$420,000,000 |
~3,200 |
A Complete Unknown |
Searchlight Pictures |
$16,500,000 |
NEW |
$30,700,000 |
$30,700,000 |
~2,500 |
Nosferatu |
Focus Features |
$14,600,000 |
NEW |
$31,100,000 |
$31,100,000 |
~2,600 |
Moana 2 |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$11,900,000 |
-10% |
$18,900,000 |
$384,400,000 |
~3,200 |
Babygirl |
A24 |
$5,300,000 |
NEW |
$9,500,000 |
$9,500,000 |
~2,100 |
Homestead |
Angel Studios |
$4,200,000 |
-31% |
$7,400,000 |
$14,900,000 |
~1,886 |
Gladiator II |
Paramount Pictures |
$4,000,000 |
-12% |
$6,800,000 |
$163,300,000 |
~1,600 |
The Fire Inside |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$2,800,000 |
NEW |
$5,000,000 |
$5,000,000 |
~2,000 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.