This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
This week’s report will be short and sweet with no major openers on the first full frame of 2025. We’ll return to regular analysis next week after one last holiday frame.
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- As noted, there are no major studio releases this weekend as the industry allows the bevy of Christmas week openers and other holdovers to carry the new year’s first weekend. With most schools still closed on January 2 and 3, plus many still on work breaks or vacations, we’re including three- and five-day outlooks below.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 32 percent above the same weekend in 2024 ($75.4 million) and 16 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($119 million).
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
5-Day (Wed-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, January 5 |
Fri Location Count Projection (as of Thu) |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$24,600,000 |
-33% |
$41,000,000 |
$169,200,000 |
~4,100 |
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 |
Paramount Pictures |
$20,000,000 |
-46% |
$35,100,000 |
$187,200,000 |
~3,769 |
Wicked |
Universal Pictures |
$13,500,000 |
-32% |
$23,000,000 |
$455,900,000 |
~3,177 |
Moana 2 |
Walt Disney Pictures |
$12,900,000 |
-32% |
$22,100,000 |
$426,100,000 |
~3,400 |
Nosferatu |
Focus Features |
$11,000,000 |
-49% |
$18,900,000 |
$67,000,000 |
~2,992 |
A Complete Unknown |
Searchlight Pictures |
$8,100,000 |
-30% |
$13,200,000 |
$41,600,000 |
~3,000 |
Gladiator II |
Paramount Pictures |
$3,500,000 |
-14% |
$5,800,000 |
$171,200,000 |
~1,850 |
Babygirl |
A24 |
$2,800,000 |
-38% |
$4,700,000 |
$14,300,000 |
~2,115 |
Homestead |
Angel Studios |
$2,200,000 |
-29% |
$3,500,000 |
$17,500,000 |
~1,769 |
The Fire Inside |
Amazon MGM Studios |
$1,300,000 |
-34% |
$2,200,000 |
$7,100,000 |
~2,006 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
For media inquiries or questions about our forecasts and services, please contact us.