5-Week Tracking & Forecasts: Marvel’s CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD and PADDINGTON IN PERU’s Early Box Office Prospects

This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

We’re back after a brief break for the holidays, but before getting to this week’s report, our sincerest thoughts and condolences go out to those affected by the devastating wildfires in California.

2025’s first significant tentpole, Captain America: Brave New World, arrives on Valentine’s and Presidents Day weekend next month, alongside a potentially healthy counter-programmer for families in the form of Paddington in Peru. Pre-sales have not yet begun for either film, but preliminary tracking and rationale are below.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Die-hard Marvel fans are eager to see the new era of Captain America begin on the big screen with Brave New World, a sub-franchise now led by Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson following the events of 2019’s Avengers: Endgame and 2021’s Disney+ streaming series, The Falcon and the Winter Soldier. Social media footprints and trailer views are comparable to where Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania stood at the same point before release.
• The addition of Harrison Ford, stepping in for the late William Hurt’s “Thunderbolt” Ross from previous Marvel Cinematic Universe films, may add some intrigue for Marvel’s older audience, particularly those fond of the more grounded films in the broader franchise. In particular,Brave New World‘s trailers evoke a political action-thriller tone reminiscent of Captain America: The Winter Solider and Captain America: Civil War, the former of which is widely regarded as one of the most popular and well-reviewed of the series (with Civil War similarly well-remembered among fans as a highly effective bridge to the most recent Avengers films).
• That particular genre, however, will probably reduce some appeal to family audiences with kids. Landing on Valentine’s Day also may slightly hamper upfront box office sales as the film will play heavily toward male moviegoers. Last year’s Deadpool & Wolverine and 2014’s own Winter Soldier drew respective 64 percent male shares on opening weekend.
• Ultimately, late stage marketing, reviews, and early screening reception will be very important for Brave New World. The MCU has seen its share of ups and downs in recent years with general sentiment highlighting that the franchise doesn’t, at the moment, have the kind of clear trajectory which traditionally kept casual moviegoers coming back to each character’s series of films in between event-level stories.
• Opening weekend demand could be naturally muted compared to most pre-2022 Marvel films because of that, but strong word of mouth (should that come to fruition) and a lack of direct competition (before and after) on the release slate would bode well for staying power.
• Not to be forgotten, Sony will distribute Paddington in Peru over the extended holiday frame in a play for those aforementioned family crowds looking for lighter, kid-friendly fare. Alongside Dog Man in late January, it will be the among the first significant releases aimed at that audience since Mufasa and Sonic 3, and won’t face direct competition again until March or April.
• While the previous Paddington sequel somewhat underperformed versus the original domestically ($40.9 million in 2018 versus $76.2 million in 2015), both films are incredibly well-regarded and have gone on to successful at-home viewing life cycles. Peru already boasts a 93 percent fresh score from 56 Rotten Tomatoes critics, following in the footsteps of its predecessors which rank among the best-reviewed family movies of all-time.

5-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts
as of 1/9/25
(best viewed in Desktop mode; full chart available in our Substack newsletter)

All forecasts and tracking ranges above are reflective only of how the films are trending or expected to trend ahead of release. They are not final forecasts or predictions and are subject to revision at any time based on evolving market conditions and various circumstances that are factored into our modeling.