Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: F1’s Bullish Momentum Continues, Early THE BAD GUYS 2 ($26M+) and THE NAKED GUN ($23M+) Outlooks, and a SUPERMAN Update

The full version of this report appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.

Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:

• Joining public forecasts this week are the first major studio releases of August.
  • The Bad Guys 2 is aiming to build on the success of its predecessor, which was one of the early success stories in COVID-era theatrical recovery when it debuted to $23.95 million during spring 2022 before legging out to $97.5 million domestically.
    • The sequel opens in the final stretch of a summer that lacks top-tier tentpoles aimed at young kids and pre-teens, and it won’t face direct competition for young kids and parents again during its run as the release slate is absent much in the way of animation through fall.
  • The Naked Gun revival has enjoyed healthy sentiment scores with its teaser and recent trailer release, showcasing Liam Neeson’s comedic chops in a way that could help it stand out as one of the few traditional slapstick comedies to hit theaters of late.
    • The IP and Neeson himself will naturally translate to audience demographics dominated by older millennials, Gen X, and potentially boomers — though much of that crowd has been challenging to bring out to theaters in recent times. From the creative team behind the strongly reviewed Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers, the legacy franchise could have sleeper potential in late summer if younger adults show up for the absurdist humor.
  • Closer to the home front:
    • F1: The Movie continues to display strong pre-sale traction in the wake of its review embargo lift, yielding an 87 percent fresh score from 70 Rotten Tomatoes critics so far. The Brad Pitt-led sports action-drama is pacing closely to Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning in our exhibition pre-sale samples.
    • M3GAN 2.0 will continue relying on its comedy angle and appeal among young women to generate walk-up and late-stage sales next week as pacing lags behind recent horror sequels such as Final Destination: Bloodlines and Smile 2.
    • We remain bullish on Superman‘s long-term outlook but are slightly revising the model to tentatively account for potential over-indexing of social media metrics or expected pre-sale pathing. Projections are still highly volatile as the current market is flooded with multiple tentpole summer releases vying for ticket sales before Superman‘s release, as well as The Fantastic Four two weeks later. The James Gunn and DC Studios film is showing early signs of strong post-Thursday business relative to the front-loaded nature of recent midsummer comic book tentpoles, but much of that will be determined by final marketing and word of mouth/reviews.

6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 6/19/25

(NOTE: Pinpoint and full 6-week forecasts are available in our Substack newsletter.)