This report also appears in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter.
Summer box office tends to come to an unceremonious end except on the rare occasions when a major studio opts to release a high-profile film over the holiday frame (such as 2023’s The Equalizer 3, which bowed to a $42.8 million four-day, or 2021’s Shang-Chi and its holiday record $94.7 million).
This year is not one of those cases.
The Roses
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $5.5 — 10 million 4-Day
Jaws (50th Anniversary)
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $5 — 9 million 4-Day
Caught Stealing
BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range: $5 — 8 million 4-Day
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
- Weapons is likely to retake the top spot in its fourth frame. After a brief concession to Netflix’s Kpop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event (estimated $19 million) last weekend, the latter special engagement is no longer in theaters. Zach Cregger’s word-of-mouth genre hit will get one last crack at the crown before a fellow Warner Bros. horror event, The Conjuring: Last Rites, debuts on September 5. That sequel’s tracking has climbed in recent days to a potential $45-to-50 million domestic start (if not higher).
- Freakier Friday should also benefit from reception and lack of family competition over the holiday, though as with all films, the box office’s biggest source of competition (aside from a lack of major releases) is the fact that many people will be taking the extended weekend to enjoy one last dose of summer outings and vacations.
- Among the openers, The Roses is showing modest potential in pre-sales and early access demand. The star appeal of Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman in the comedy remake is aiming to attract adults over 35.
- Universal’s nationwide re-release of Steven Spielberg’s Jaws in honor of the film’s 50th anniversary is another healthy performer in pre-sales with IMAX and PLF demand in tow.
- Caught Stealing will largely appeal to Darren Aronofsky fans and cinephiles as a dark comedy/crime thriller but represents another welcome counter-programmer to a field of holdovers.
Weekend Forecast
(table below is best viewed in desktop format)
This weekend’s top 10 films are tracking to earn 19 percent below the same weekend in 2024 ($67.8 million), led by Deadpool & Wolverine‘s $15.5 million sixth frame, and 14 percent below the same weekend in 2019 ($63.9 million), led by Angel Has Fallen‘s $11.8 million second frame.
Film |
Distributor |
3-Day (Fri-Sun) Weekend Forecast |
3-Day Change from Last Weekend |
4-Day (Fri-Mon) Weekend Forecast |
Projected Domestic Total through Monday, August 25 |
Expected Location Count (as of Wed) |
Weapons |
Warner Bros. |
$11,600,000 |
-25% |
$14,300,000 |
$136,600,000 |
~3,500 |
Freakier Friday |
Disney |
$8,400,000 |
-6% |
$11,400,000 |
$85,400,000 |
~3,500 |
The Roses |
Searchlight Pictures |
$7,100,000 |
NEW |
$8,500,000 |
$8,500,000 |
~2,500 |
Jaws (50th Anniversary Re-Issue) |
Universal |
$6,000,000 |
NEW |
$7,400,000 |
$7,400,000 |
~2,800 |
The Fantastic Four: First Steps |
Disney / Marvel |
$4,900,000 |
-18% |
$6,200,000 |
$265,800,000 |
~3,000 |
Caught Stealing |
Sony |
$5,000,000 |
NEW |
$6,000,000 |
$6,000,000 |
~3,000 |
The Bad Guys 2 |
Universal |
$4,300,000 |
-16% |
$5,800,000 |
$74,100,000 |
~2,900 |
Superman (2025) |
Warner Bros. |
$2,800,000 |
-18% |
$3,600,000 |
$352,000,000 |
~2,000 |
Nobody 2 |
Universal |
$2,500,000 |
-32% |
$3,200,000 |
$21,500,000 |
~2,600 |
The Naked Gun (2025) |
Paramount |
$2,400,000 |
-20% |
$3,000,000 |
$52,000,000 |
~2,500 |
The Toxic Avenger Unrated |
Cineverse / Iconic Events |
$1,000,000 |
NEW |
$1,200,000 |
$1,200,000 |
~2,000 |
All forecasts above are subject to revision prior to the start of the weekend and will be notated accordingly. Theater counts are estimated unless otherwise stated.
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